Day-ahead electricity prices increased across most Southeast European markets for delivery on 14 July 2026, but the move did not bring regional convergence. The market remained divided into three pricing areas: a high-price Hungary–Slovenia–Austria zone, a mid-range Romania–Bulgaria–Greece–Croatia group, and a lower-priced southern Balkan cluster covering Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.
Hungary premium widens within the Central European-linked zone
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price rose by €7.90/MWh to €133.75/MWh. Slovenia settled at €133.65/MWh and Austria at €135.72/MWh. The close alignment kept Hungary strongly connected to the Central European pricing area despite continued dependence on cross-border imports.
Germany traded below Hungary at €123.97/MWh, leaving a Hungarian premium of €9.78/MWh. The premium was €3/MWh higher than in the previous session. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia averaged about 1,496 MW, down by 438 MW.
Italy benchmark stays above Hungary as flows continue toward the peninsula
Even with the premium over Germany, Hungarian prices remained below Italy’s benchmark. Italy’s day-ahead price reached €151.89/MWh, creating an €18.14/MWh premium over Hungary. Average exports toward Italy were about 1,025 MW, supporting prices in Slovenia, Croatia and western Balkan markets.
Eastern interconnected markets stayed below Hungary levels. Romania settled at €121.72/MWh, while Bulgaria and Greece both reached €118.40/MWh. Hungary traded €12.03/MWh above Romania and €15.35/MWh above Bulgaria and Greece.
Croatia sits mid-table as net imports remain high
Croatia recorded a day-ahead price of €126.65/MWh, trading around €7.10/MWh below Hungary while staying well above Montenegro. Croatia continued to rely on imports during both baseload and peak periods. It received about 587 MW from Hungary in baseload hours and 745 MW during peak periods.
Imports into Croatia also came from Slovenia, at roughly 503 MW in baseload and 456 MW during peak hours. Total Croatian net imports were approximately 1,214 MW, making it the largest importing market in the analysed region.
Southern Balkan cluster holds lower prices with small internal spread
The lowest prices were recorded further south across the southern Balkan cluster. Serbia’s SEEPEX price increased by €10.60/MWh to €108.15/MWh but remained €25.60/MWh below Hungary. Montenegro settled at €103.97/MWh, Albania at €103.77/MWh, and North Macedonia at €104.74/MWh.
The four markets traded within a range of less than €4.40/MWh, indicating tight daily alignment inside the cluster. Albania recorded the strongest daily increase at +€19.50/MWh while remaining the cheapest market in the region; Montenegro rose by +€8.70/MWh and North Macedonia was almost unchanged.
Cross-border flows diverge from daily average price signals
Bulgaria exported about 1,498 MW, Greece around 541 MW, while Romania remained close to balance. On the import side, Hungary imported around 864 MW, Serbia about 489 MW, and Croatia approximately 1,214 MW. Cross-border schedules showed that commercial flows do not always track daily average price signals.
Bulgaria continued exporting electricity toward Serbia despite having a higher daily price in this session {{EXTLINK_0}} . The pattern was linked to bilateral agreements, transmission rights, hourly price differences and incomplete market coupling across several borders.
Northern Adriatic links include Bosnia flows into Montenegro
Montenegro maintained connections with neighbouring systems through imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina of approximately 229–233 MW. Serbia supplied Montenegro with around 163–183 MW. Albania provided about 94 MW during baseload hours and 141 MW during peak periods.
{{EXTLINK_1}} These exchanges supported a close price relationship between Montenegro and Albania in the day-ahead outcomes reported for 14 July 2026.
Demand forecast rises with warmer weather; solar output increases flexibility needs later
Regional electricity demand was forecast at 32,728 MW, up by 1,384 MW or about 4.4% versus Monday. Hungary’s consumption increased by 215 MW to 4,712 MW, while Greek demand rose by 398 MW to 7,470 MW. Combined demand in Romania and Bulgaria reached 9,677 MW, with western Balkan consumption increasing by approximately 471 MW.
The regional average temperature excluding Greece rose by 1.7°C to 23.5°C. Forecast temperatures were about 25.5°C in Hungary, 24.6°C in Serbia, and 29.1°C in Montenegro. Further warming later in the week was forecast with Montenegro approaching 30.9°C, Serbia at 27.1°C, and Hungary at 26.9°C.
Solar and wind additions cover part of demand growth; net imports stay limited
A rise in renewable generation helped absorb part of the additional electricity demand forecast for the day ahead {{EXTLINK_2}} . Solar production was forecast to increase by 350 MW to 6,782 MW . Solar production increased by 350 MW to 6,782 MW while wind generation rose by 576 MW to 2,498 MW.
{{EXTLINK_3}} Combined wind and solar output reached approximately 9,280 MW, covering about 28.4% of forecast regional consumption; the additional 926 MW covered roughly 67% of the daily demand increase.
Total generation requirements increase; weekday demand supported mainly domestically
The remaining balance required about 458 MW of additional dispatchable generation or adjustments in other renewable output and cross-border positions {{EXTLINK_4}} . Regional net imports decreased by 204 MW to 635 MW, covering less than 2% of total forecast consumption.
{{EXTLINK_5}} Based on demand and import levels, regional generation would need to reach approximately 32,093 MW, around 1,588 MW above Monday’s output; after accounting for renewable increases, hydro, thermal, nuclear and other sources would need to provide about 660 MW of additional generation.
Midsummer solar drives intraday volatility; gas and carbon costs support evening prices
{{EXTLINK_6}} Hourly price movements showed stronger volatility than daily averages indicated for HUPX: prices dropped toward €75–90/MWh during midday solar production before rising above €200/MWh during evening peak hours on 14 July 2026 delivery.
{{EXTLINK_7}} Similar patterns appeared in Romania, Greece and Slovenia where solar generation created midday price pressure followed by expensive evening demand periods; in Hungary the midday-to-evening spread exceeded €120/MWh.
{{EXTLINK_8}} Fuel markets supported higher evening electricity prices: Austrian CEGH gas increased by €2.30/MWh to €52.05/MWh while Greek gas reached €44.20/MWh; EU carbon allowances climbed to €80.11/t.
{{EXTLINK_9}} These levels placed variable costs for modern gas-fired generation at roughly €124–136/MWh depending on efficiency and emissions intensity.
Tightening expectations show up in Hungarian forward weeks; congestion concerns widen later premiums over Germany {{EXTLINK_10}}
{{EXTLINK_10}} Hungarian forward markets showed mixed expectations: Week 30 declined by €8/MWh to €120/MWh while Week 31 increased by €4.50/MWh to €133/MWh.
The difference reflected expectations of short-term easing followed by tighter conditions later in the curve {{EXTLINK_11}} . The Hungarian premium over Germany also widened for later delivery periods amid concerns over congestion and import availability {{EXTLINK_12}} . The Southeast European market continued to show cheap midday renewable production alongside expensive evening flexibility requirements {{EXTLINK_13}} . Southern Balkan markets traded near €104–108/MWh but transmission limitations prevented those lower prices from fully reaching Hungary, Slovenia and Italy {{EXTLINK_14}} .
