Day-ahead electricity prices in Serbia increased by €47.20/MWh to €150.18/MWh for October 1. The move occurred as Hungary, Romania and northern Balkan markets strengthened, while Albania and Montenegro recorded lower prices. Regional trading spreads widened despite forecasts for higher renewable generation and slightly weaker overall consumption.
Central and northern market price moves
Germany posted the clearest external change, with electricity rising by €54.40/MWh to €195.18/MWh. Hungary shifted from a premium of roughly €4.90/MWh on the previous day to a €31.46/MWh discount. This coincided with forecast reductions in electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia.
Hungary’s HUPX settled at €163.72/MWh, up €18.10/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM rose by €20.20/MWh to €164.48/MWh. The resulting spread between the two markets was €0.76/MWh, smaller than the differences seen across southern exchanges.
Slovenia climbed by €21.70/MWh to €170.77/MWh, while Croatia gained €21.40/MWh to €169.38/MWh. Both remained above Hungary, with premiums of around €7/MWh for Slovenia and about €6/MWh for Croatia. Serbia’s increase was the largest among the southeast European exchanges covered.
Even after the rise, Serbia retained a €13.54/MWh discount versus Hungary. Serbia’s projected net imports averaged 735 MW, while Hungary and Croatia remained net importers at 995 MW and 896 MW, respectively.
Southern Balkan prices and cross-border spreads
The southern markets moved in a different direction from the north. Albania’s ALPEX fell by €48.50/MWh to €97.94/MWh, the lowest price among the surveyed markets. Montenegro’s BELEN eased by €1.70/MWh to €114.22/MWh.
Greece increased by €1.60/MWh to €111.17/MWh. Bulgaria gained €1.10/MWh to €134.86/MWh, and North Macedonia rose by €7.80/MWh to €115.91/MWh. Hungary traded about €52.55/MWh above Greece, and nearly €66/MWh above Albania.
The daily average spreads indicated potential value for cross-border trading, though executable margins depend on hourly prices, transmission capacity and delivery costs . Greece and Bulgaria were projected to remain substantial net exporters, averaging 1,826 MW and 1,340 MW, respectively.
Northern flows, demand forecasts, and renewables outlook
Across Hungary and southeast Europe, the aggregate balance shifted from 226 MW of net imports on September 30 to 248 MW of net exports for October 1]]>. Forecast consumption slipped by 80 MW to 29,382 MW.
Solar generation was forecast to rise by 1,983 MW to 6,759 MW.
Wind output was expected to decline by 383 MW to 4,937 MW.
Combined wind and solar production therefore increased by about 1,600 MW . Those forecasts did not align with a region-wide demand-driven explanation for the price rise.
Forward markets and fuel-cost signals
The report cited hourly drivers as necessary for identifying causes behind individual market moves, including generation patterns, plant availability and transmission data . Forward prices also strengthened following the spot moves.
Hungarian week 41 power rose €3.50/MWh to €198.50/MWh.
Week 42 gained €7/MWh to €206/MWh, while November power increased to €198.50/MWh—around €35/MWh above the October 1 spot average.
Gas added cost pressure: Austrian CEGH rose to €73.73/MWh and Greek gas reached €66.45/MWh.
Carbon allowances eased to €85.09 a tonne, offering some relief for fossil-fuel generators . For buyers, immediate exposure remained concentrated in Serbia and northern markets.
Higher forecast renewable output improved the regional balance but did not prevent a €47.20/MWh daily increase in Serbian electricity costs.
