Day-ahead electricity prices rebounded strongly for Sept. 28 as weekday demand returned and regional cross-border flows shifted toward higher-priced western markets. Prices in Serbia remained a major outlier, trading almost €50/MWh below Hungary.
Day-ahead price levels across SEE markets
On HUPX, Hungary’s base price increased by €47.3/MWh to €161.19/MWh. Romania rose to €154.34/MWh, Bulgaria to €146.11/MWh and Greece to €135.11/MWh.
Elsewhere in the region, Croatia settled at €166.14/MWh, Montenegro at €165.13/MWh and Slovenia at €168.95/MWh. North Macedonia recorded €150.41/MWh and Albania €129.40/MWh.
Serbia posted the lowest average in the region at just €111.69/MWh, little changed from Sunday. The Serbian level was around €49.5/MWh below HUPX, with the wide discount persisting even though Serbia remained a net electricity importer.
Western hubs strengthen while regional demand rises
Western markets were substantially higher, with Germany trading around €195.40/MWh, Austria at €174.51/MWh and Italy at about €203.55/MWh. This maintained an economic incentive for electricity to move west where cross-border capacity was available.
Regional consumption increased by about 3.65 GW from Sunday to 28.83 GW. The rise helped restore the weekday premium after the weekend price collapse.
Cross-border flows shift west as exports increase
The combined Hungary and SEE system moved from an almost balanced position on Sunday to net exports averaging around 1.39 GW. About 1.26 GW flowed toward Italy, while roughly 547 MW moved toward Austria and Slovakia.
Bulgaria exported an average 1.33 GW, Romania about 754 MW, Greece 1.35 GW and Bosnia and Herzegovina around 530 MW. Hungary stayed a net importer of about 821 MW, Croatia imported around 859 MW, and Serbia imported about 394 MW.
The change in cross-border direction was one of the strongest drivers behind Monday’s market recovery, with Bulgaria, Romania and Greece supplying higher-priced western markets through available interconnector capacity . Romania also emerged as an important east-to-west transit source, with flows toward Hungary reaching around 1.92 GW.
Bulgaria simultaneously supplied approximately 1.15 GW to Romania and almost 390 MW to Serbia, reflecting an increasingly interconnected flow structure across eastern SEE markets . Hungary then redistributed part of those imports west and south, exporting around 851 MW toward Austria, 679 MW toward Slovenia and 515 MW toward Croatia.
Diverging national pricing signals and hourly flexibility
The pricing gap remained pronounced for Serbia relative to neighbouring markets, with SEEPEX trading around €34/MWh below Bulgaria, almost €43/MWh below Romania and close to €50/MWh below Hungary . Despite Serbia importing overall, individual interconnector constraints, hourly commercial schedules and congestion were cited as factors shaping whether cheaper electricity can reach adjacent premium markets.
The hourly curves showed the growing value of flexibility across the day . On HUPX, prices fell to around €5.6/MWh during the midday renewable period before rising to €342.2/MWh at hour 20.
In Serbia, prices ranged from about €20/MWh during the low-price period to €276.6/MWh in the evening . Greece briefly reached €0/MWh around midday before recovering toward an evening maximum of about €271/MWh.
The difference between individual hours was considerably larger than the gap between many national daily averages . Strong solar production continued to compress midday prices, while falling renewable output later in the day restored premiums for flexible hydro, gas generation, storage and imports.
