European natural gas prices finished the week lower after subdued demand and continued storage injections outweighed concerns over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The market also tracked shifting expectations around potential developments in the region.
TTF contract moves lower
The October TTF contract traded at €71.16/MWh, around 10.5% below the previous week’s €79.51/MWh. It had briefly recovered to €74.94/MWh on Sept. 24. That move occurred as uncertainty over US-Iran contacts and LNG shipments eased, before prices weakened again.
Storage levels and demand weigh on prices
EU gas storage stood at 70.24% full on Sept. 24, compared with more than 80% a year earlier. Lower inventories have not produced sustained upward pressure on prices so far. Demand has remained below levels seen during the 2021-2022 energy crisis, while Europe expanded LNG import capacity and diversified supplies.
Hormuz-linked risk remains for winter supply
The latest decline accelerated following reports that Iran could consider reopening the Strait of Hormuz if talks with the United States resumed and restrictions affecting Iranian ports were removed. The market remains highly exposed to developments around the strait.
A prolonged disruption could push European and Asian buyers into stronger competition for alternative LNG cargoes as heating demand begins to rise. In early October, European authorities are due to reassess storage, supply conditions and winter preparedness. Geopolitical developments and LNG availability remain the main near-term risks to the softer gas-price trend.
