EU gas storage stood at approximately 811 TWh, or 74 billion cubic metres, on October 1, based on figures attributed to ENTSOG. Storage levels were 72% full, down from 83% and about 940 TWh a year earlier.
The lower starting position reflects substantial withdrawals during the previous heating season. By April 1, storage had fallen to 28% after roughly 620 TWh was drawn down over winter.
Central and eastern buffer entering October
Central and eastern Europe entered October with a stronger storage buffer. Across Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Romania and Hungary, inventories averaged 78.6% full.
This regional starting point contrasts with the EU-wide figures reported for October 1. It also comes after the earlier-season drawdown that reduced overall storage to 28% by April 1.
LNG demand benchmarks and end-winter inventory levels
ENTSOG estimates that a reference winter would require about 1,060 TWh of LNG, equivalent to 96 billion cubic metres. The estimate is designed to meet demand while leaving storage at 30% full at the end of the season.
Under a tighter LNG scenario, end-winter inventories could fall well below 30%. The risk is linked to cold weather accelerating consumption.
Import capacity versus cargo availability risks
Physical import capacity is estimated to be sufficient for winter operations. Winter regasification capability is estimated at approximately 1,600 TWh.
Cargo availability is described as the main uncertainty. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could increase competition for global LNG supplies, affecting the ability to secure arrivals consistently .
Withdrawal management under lower opening stocks
The infrastructure to manage winter demand remains in place despite lower opening stocks. With inventories starting from a weaker position, buyers are more exposed to the price of securing the next cargo .
This exposure is tied to sustained LNG arrivals needed alongside careful management of withdrawals during the heating season.
