Prices for Southeast European day-ahead electricity rose sharply for Monday, 2 November delivery, with Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary and Romania all above €309/MWh. Weekday demand returned as prices in the region opened a pronounced premium over Germany. Bulgaria’s IBEX recorded the highest baseload price at €317.78/MWh, up €55.8/MWh from Sunday, followed by Greece at €312.94/MWh, Hungary at €310.29/MWh and Romania at €309.74/MWh.
Germany’s price increased by just €3.1/MWh, to €259.01/MWh, taking the Hungary-Germany spread to €51.28/MWh. The gap was one of the clearest signals from the session, with the rebound concentrated in central and southeastern Europe rather than reflecting a comparable increase across the wider continental market.
Regional electricity consumption was forecast to average 34,232 MW, an increase of 3,441 MW from Sunday. Despite the higher demand, net imports into the Hungary-SEE system fell by 591 MW to 3,844 MW, while imports from the Austria-Slovakia core declined by 901 MW to 3,024 MW. Imports from Italy, by contrast, rose sharply to 928 MW.
The combination of higher consumption and lower aggregate imports indicates that much of Monday’s demand increase was met by greater regional generation rather than additional external supply. Regional power-balance data put generation at about 30.4 GW, compared with 26.4 GW on Sunday, while consumption rose back above 34 GW.
Afternoon and evening prices climb across the region
Hourly price curves on several exchanges showed a synchronised increase in the afternoon and evening. HUPX reached a Monday high of €396.5/MWh, while Romania and Bulgaria each peaked at €395.4/MWh and Greece at €394.6/MWh. Serbia’s maximum was €375/MWh and Montenegro’s was €350/MWh.
The peak hours coincided across interconnected markets, pointing to a regional rather than purely national price event.
Serbia remains below higher-priced eastern markets
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price climbed €31.9/MWh to €293.32/MWh, but remained almost €17/MWh below Hungary and around €24/MWh below Bulgaria. The Serbian market took part in the regional rally without converging fully with the higher-priced eastern group.
SEEPEX peakload reached €331.1/MWh, while off-peak power traded at €255.6/MWh. The daily low was €206/MWh and the high was €375/MWh, with the seven-day baseload average at €287.7/MWh.
Serbia’s domestic balance showed no comparable increase in demand. Average consumption was about 4,037 MW, little changed from 4,031 MW on Sunday, while generation declined to approximately 2,890 MW from 2,930 MW. The resulting net import requirement rose to around 1,148 MW, compared with 1,101 MW a day earlier.
This indicates that the SEEPEX increase was driven less by a sudden rise in Serbian consumption than by repricing in the surrounding interconnected market and the country’s continuing structural exposure to imported electricity.
Montenegro’s import deficit narrows
Montenegro remained cheaper than the main eastern SEE markets. BELEN baseload rose €19.4/MWh to €287.55/MWh, leaving it about €22.7/MWh below Hungary, €25.4/MWh below Greece and more than €30/MWh below Bulgaria.
Peak power reached €310.7/MWh and off-peak power €264.4/MWh. The daily minimum was €226/MWh, while the maximum stood at €350/MWh.
Consumption in Montenegro was broadly stable at around 356 MW, but generation increased to approximately 177 MW from 110 MW on Sunday. As a result, the country’s net import position narrowed to about 179 MW from 245 MW. The improved physical balance helped Montenegro retain a substantial discount to the main eastern SEE markets during the wider regional rise.
Albania moves against the regional rally
Albania was the main outlier. ALPEX baseload slipped €2.6/MWh to €259.96/MWh, around €50/MWh below Hungary and almost €58/MWh below Bulgaria.
Its off-peak price fell to €194.4/MWh, and the daily minimum reached just €89.5/MWh, while peakload remained firmer at €325.5/MWh. The unusually wide intraday range underscores the increasingly fragmented nature of SEE pricing: relatively cheap renewable-heavy markets can coexist with very expensive thermal and import-dependent markets on the same delivery day.
Hungary faces tighter domestic supply
Hungary provided a strong indication of tightening conditions. Consumption rose from 4,540 MW on Sunday to 5,202 MW, while generation fell from 3,532 MW to around 3,264 MW. The country’s net import requirement consequently increased from approximately 1,008 MW to 1,938 MW.
The deterioration in Hungary’s domestic power balance helps explain why HUPX diverged so sharply from Germany. Forward prices also remained elevated, with Hungarian Week 45 power at €327.50/MWh, Week 46 at €333/MWh and November at €304.50/MWh.
The November contract gained €11.5/MWh from the previous session, while Week 46 rose by €23/MWh. CEGH gas stood at €105.39/MWh, EU carbon allowances at €89.19/t and November coal at $148/t, maintaining a high thermal generation cost floor.
The key market signal on 2 November was not only the rise in SEE prices after the weekend, but also the renewed separation between Germany and the Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria-Greece corridor. Serbia and Montenegro remained below that expensive eastern group, while Albania again emerged as the region’s principal low-price market.
For traders and large consumers, the price structure formed three tiers: a high-priced eastern core above €309/MWh, an intermediate Serbia-Montenegro-North Macedonia corridor at around €288-294/MWh, and Albania near €260/MWh.
The return of weekday demand, Hungary’s larger import deficit and the €51/MWh Hungary-Germany spread were the key signals for the next session. Persistence of those conditions would indicate that the latest rally represents more than a simple post-weekend normalisation of demand.
