Electricity prices in eastern Southeast Europe remained near €300/MWh on 30 October as lower wind and solar output drove a sharp rise in imports. Prices eased from Thursday’s extreme levels in markets including Serbia and Hungary, but supply remained tight. Day-ahead power prices in the eastern markets stayed well above those in Germany, Austria and Italy.
Regional net imports increased by 1,316 MW day on day to an average of 4,995 MW, although forecast consumption edged down by 88 MW to 34,209 MW. Forecast solar output fell by 696 MW to 2,342 MW, while wind output dropped by almost 2 GW to 3,301 MW. Together, wind and solar availability was around 2.68 GW below the previous day’s level.
The renewable shortfall increased reliance on Central European supply despite broadly unchanged demand. Average flows from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-SEE region rose by 1,045 MW to 4,438 MW. Imports from Italy increased by 88 MW to 580 MW, making reduced supply rather than consumption the main source of Friday’s tightness.
Eastern markets remain above €300/MWh
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead base price fell by €18.5/MWh to €306.05/MWh. It remained above Germany at €268.62/MWh, Austria at €275.23/MWh and Italy at €274.04/MWh. The HUPX-Germany spread widened by €27.7/MWh to €37.43/MWh because German prices declined much faster.
Prices in the eastern SEE markets were closely grouped, with Romania at €303.56/MWh, Bulgaria at €302.20/MWh, Serbia at €303.29/MWh and Albania at €302.02/MWh. Serbia’s price was €26.8/MWh lower than on Thursday. Albania posted the largest correction, falling €64.8/MWh.
Further south, North Macedonia remained the region’s most expensive market at €321.66/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €313.98/MWh. Montenegro was among the few markets to rise, gaining €1.2/MWh on the day. Greece moved against the broader regional trend: HENEX rose by €49/MWh to €287.75/MWh, leaving it materially cheaper than the eastern Balkan group. Hungary’s premium over Greece narrowed to €18.30/MWh, compared with a spread almost €68/MWh wider a day earlier.
Evening peaks and Hungarian imports
Hourly prices showed continued scarcity during the evening peak. Serbia’s €303.3/MWh base price on SEEPEX included a €331.3/MWh peak average and a daily high of €416.3/MWh at H18. Montenegro reached €407.2/MWh at H18, while North Macedonia climbed to €460/MWh in the same hour.
Hungarian demand averaged 5,169 MW, down from 5,418 MW, but domestic generation also declined to 3,141 MW from 3,504 MW. Net imports consequently averaged about 2,028 MW. Hungary drew power from Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring markets while exporting significant volumes towards Romania.
Fuel costs and forward premiums
Fuel and carbon costs continued to underpin power prices. CEGH gas stood at €100.23/MWh after falling €1.8/MWh on the day, while EU carbon allowances were €89.2/t. November gas was priced at €99.50/MWh and Q1 2027 gas at €98.50/MWh, keeping gas-fired generation expensive across the region.
Hungarian forward power was priced at €313/MWh for Week 45, €310/MWh for Week 46 and €293/MWh for November. The HU-DE forward spread reached €63.5/MWh for Week 45 and €84/MWh for Week 46, indicating that traders did not expect the regional premium to disappear quickly. The end-October trading pattern showed that SEE remained structurally short when renewable production weakened: lower demand alone did not materially reduce prices as Hungary and the Balkans competed for Central European imports. Eastern SEE prices consequently clustered around €300/MWh, with persistent premiums to Germany, Austria and Italy and particularly high prices during evening peak hours.
