Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price fell €43.4/MWh to €241.69/MWh on Tuesday as stronger renewable generation helped push day-ahead power prices across Southeast Europe lower despite rising demand. SEEPEX had settled at €285.1/MWh a day earlier. Hungary’s HUPX fell €26.1/MWh to €241.30/MWh, nearly eliminating the baseload spread between the two markets.
Greece dropped €33.7/MWh to €224.85/MWh, the lowest price among the region’s major markets. North Macedonia declined €25/MWh to €259.84/MWh but remained Southeast Europe’s most expensive market. Romania and Bulgaria retained premiums: OPCOM settled at €255.49/MWh, €14.19/MWh above HUPX, while IBEX reached €254.58/MWh, a €13.28/MWh premium.
Monday’s extreme tightness in eastern Europe had eased, although congestion and generation risks continued to keep Romania and Bulgaria above cheaper markets to the west and south. Stronger renewable availability was the main downward pressure on prices. Regional solar generation forecasts rose by almost 2 GW day on day to 4.26 GW, while forecast wind output increased by slightly more than 1 GW to 3.51 GW, adding around 3 GW of lower-marginal-cost supply.
Higher output cuts regional imports
Aggregate consumption in Hungary and Southeast Europe increased by 626 MW to 32.94 GW, yet net regional imports fell by 608 MW to 4.01 GW. Imports from the core Austrian and Slovak direction eased by 219 MW to about 4.38 GW. Regional generation reached around 28.9 GW, up from 27.7 GW on Monday, absorbing most of the demand increase while reducing overall import dependence.
The balance with Italy also reversed. Southeast Europe exported around 155 MW toward Italy, compared with imports of roughly 400 MW a day earlier, a swing of more than 550 MW. The price decline thus reflected improved generation availability and sharply higher renewable supply rather than weak demand.
Serbian prices fall despite larger deficit
Serbia’s domestic balance tightened even as SEEPEX posted one of the region’s steepest price declines. Average consumption rose to around 4.21 GW from 4.05 GW, while generation edged down to about 3.27 GW. Its net import position widened to approximately 935 MW from 722 MW a day earlier, but the SEEPEX baseload price still fell by more than €43/MWh.
The move showed the importance of regional, rather than solely domestic, conditions in Serbian price formation. Serbia drew electricity from several neighbouring markets as the broader Southeast European price structure weakened. Commercial flows brought power into Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Bulgaria, while Serbia also supplied electricity northward toward Hungary during part of the day.
SEEPEX peak prices averaged €253.1/MWh and off-peak prices fell to €230.2/MWh. The daily low was €165.1/MWh, against a maximum of €314.4/MWh. The Serbia-Hungary baseload spread narrowed to €0.39/MWh, putting the markets effectively at parity after periods in which Serbia carried a material scarcity premium over HUPX.
Montenegro discounts and Albanian volatility
Montenegro traded well below Serbia and Hungary. BELEN baseload fell €8/MWh to €230.55/MWh, around €10.75/MWh below Hungary and more than €11/MWh below Serbia. Peak prices averaged €233/MWh, while off-peak prices averaged €228.1/MWh.
Montenegro’s power system was close to physical balance, with average consumption of around 356 MW and generation of about 369 MW. That left a small net export position of roughly 13 MW after the country had been a net importer the previous day. The relatively balanced domestic position helped keep BELEN prices much closer to Greece than to the higher-priced markets in Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
Albania was the main exception to the regional price decline. ALPEX rose €36.9/MWh to €251.67/MWh, moving from among Monday’s cheaper markets into the upper part of Tuesday’s Southeast European range. Its hourly prices were exceptionally volatile: peak prices averaged €221.8/MWh, off-peak prices reached €281.5/MWh, and prices ranged from €20/MWh to €400/MWh during the day.
North Macedonia remained the highest-priced baseload market at €259.84/MWh despite its €25/MWh daily fall. Across the core Southeast European markets, prices ranged from €224.85/MWh in Greece to €259.84/MWh in North Macedonia. The difference was around €35/MWh.
Germany-Hungary gap remains wide
The largest structural price spread was still between Germany and Hungary. German day-ahead baseload rose €38.5/MWh to €155.11/MWh, while HUPX declined to €241.30/MWh. The Hungary-Germany differential consequently narrowed by almost €65/MWh to €86.18/MWh.
That was a substantial contraction from recent sessions, but an €86/MWh gap still indicated severe limits on the flow of cheaper western European electricity into Hungary and Southeast Europe. Austria traded at €247.66/MWh and Italy at €246.67/MWh, both slightly above Hungary. Germany remained much cheaper, Austria and northern Italy were near Southeast European levels, and Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia retained the highest premiums.
Forward prices rise despite spot decline
The sharp fall in day-ahead prices did not weaken the Hungarian forward curve. Week-45 power rose €6.5/MWh to €301/MWh, week 46 gained €5.5/MWh to €271/MWh, and November increased €8/MWh to €280.50/MWh. Calendar 2026 rose €4/MWh to €182/MWh, leaving November power almost €40/MWh above Tuesday’s HUPX spot settlement.
Gas and carbon prices also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas increased €2.6/MWh to €97.71/MWh, Greek gas rose to €86.08/MWh, and EU carbon allowances gained €1.9/t to €88.19/t. November coal eased to €149.5/t.
Expensive gas, firmer carbon prices and unresolved generation risks kept a substantial risk premium in forward electricity prices. Romania faced uncertainty over nuclear and hydropower availability, while low Danube levels in Bulgaria affected the operating environment around Kozloduy. Those constraints remained especially important ahead of November, as solar generation entered its seasonal decline.
Tuesday’s spot correction therefore did not amount to a broad easing of the regional winter outlook. Stronger renewables and improved generation lowered immediate prices, while fuel costs, constrained cross-border capacity and generation-security concerns kept forwards elevated. For Southeast European traders, the east-west differential remained a key indicator: although the Hungary-Germany spread had fallen sharply, its level above €86/MWh still showed the region’s structural separation from cheaper German supply.
Unless that gap narrows more decisively, sharp daily corrections such as Tuesday’s are more likely to reflect volatility within a fundamentally tight regional market than the start of a sustained decline in Southeast European power prices.
