Day-ahead power prices in Southeast Europe rose sharply on 28 October, with Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Albania clearing above €300/MWh and Serbia approaching that level. Lower forecast wind and solar availability and reduced imports tightened supply while regional demand was almost unchanged. The move was broad enough to point to a supply-side squeeze rather than a demand shock.
Romania posted the highest baseload price, at €311.38/MWh, up €55.90 from the previous session. Bulgaria followed at €305.56/MWh, Hungary at €303.34/MWh and Albania at €302.05/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX price climbed €51.00 to €292.65/MWh.
Renewable forecasts and imports tighten
Forecast electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe reached 33,331 MW, just 44 MW more than a day earlier. Forecast solar availability fell by 862 MW and wind availability by 1,355 MW, removing more than 2.2 GW of renewable supply from the regional balance. Total net imports into the region also slipped to 3,941 MW.
The main inflow from Austria and Slovakia declined by 725 MW to 3,625 MW. With consumption barely changed, the region had less lower-cost generation and less external supply available to meet it. Wednesday’s trading thus reflected a shortage of inexpensive megawatt-hours rather than a material rise in electricity needs.
Hungary showed one of the largest moves: HUPX rose €62.00 to €303.34/MWh. Germany’s price increased by €94.10 to €249.21/MWh, narrowing the Hungarian premium to €54.13/MWh from more than €86/MWh a day earlier. The increase was also visible beyond the immediate day-ahead session.
Hungarian Week 45 power was assessed at €307/MWh, Week 46 at €297/MWh and November at €282.50/MWh. Week 46 gained €26/MWh in a day, indicating that traders were pricing continued regional tightness rather than an isolated hourly spike. Austrian CEGH gas, by contrast, eased slightly to €97.24/MWh, EU carbon allowances were broadly stable at €88.05/t, and November coal fell.
Those fuel-market moves offer limited evidence of a sudden increase in generation costs. Instead, the immediate pressure in regional day-ahead electricity markets came from the power balance: renewable and other generation availability, together with cross-border flows.
Serbia’s imports rise as SEEPEX nears €300/MWh
In Serbia, SEEPEX baseload reached €292.65/MWh, up €51/MWh in one session and again nearing the €300/MWh mark. Peak power was tighter at €313/MWh, while the highest hourly price reached €400/MWh. Even the daily minimum stood at €189/MWh, showing that high prices extended across the curve rather than being confined to one or two hours.
Serbia remained about €10.69/MWh cheaper than Hungary, but that narrow discount reflected its exposure to tightening across Central and Eastern Europe. Average net imports rose to roughly 1,192 MW from about 915 MW a day earlier. Regional flow data showed supplies arriving from several neighbouring systems, with only limited northbound flows from Serbia towards Hungary.
Available cross-border capacity and neighbouring supply were therefore increasingly important to Serbia’s ability to remain below HUPX prices. If those buffers tighten together, SEEPEX can move quickly towards the Hungarian and Romanian price range.
Montenegro remains cheaper despite stronger transit flows
Montenegro was still among the region’s cheaper markets despite a substantial increase. BELEN rose €35.90 to €266.41/MWh, almost €37/MWh below Hungary and about €26/MWh below Serbia. Its peak price reached €277.10/MWh, and the daily maximum touched €400/MWh.
Montenegro was nearly balanced in net physical terms, although gross cross-border flows were much larger. It drew electricity from the western side of the system, including Italy, while sending substantial volumes towards Serbia and other Western Balkan markets. Those simultaneous flows made it a transit and arbitrage corridor between Italy, the Adriatic and the higher-priced Western Balkan zone, as well as a national electricity market.
That role will become more important when TPP Pljevlja enters its planned maintenance outage on 31 October. The outage will reduce Montenegro’s domestic thermal buffer while regional prices are already elevated.
Greek exports widen regional price divide
Greece was the main exception to the regional price spike. HENEX increased only €7.70 to €232.57/MWh, leaving it roughly €71/MWh below Hungary, €79/MWh below Romania and €60/MWh below Serbia. Greek generation was running well above domestic consumption.
Greece exported around 2,010 MW on average, up from 1,400 MW the previous day, with particularly strong flows towards Bulgaria. That surplus allowed lower-priced Greek electricity to move north into the tighter Bulgarian and wider Balkan system. It also produced a marked geographical divide: Greece was the lower-price exporting zone; Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro occupied the middle; and Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Albania traded near or above €300/MWh.
Across Hungary and Southeast Europe, average imports remained close to 4 GW despite regional generation of about 29.4 GW against consumption above 33.3 GW. For traders and large industrial consumers, the 28 October session showed that another price shock need not depend on a major demand increase. A simultaneous decline in wind and solar output, alongside several hundred megawatts less supply from Central Europe, can push much of the region back towards €300-€400/MWh.
The variables now in focus are renewable forecasts, Austria-Slovakia import flows, Serbian import dependence, Greek export availability and Montenegro’s thermal availability once the Pljevlja outage begins.
