Electricity prices across southeastern Europe fell for September 30 delivery, with forecasts indicating stronger wind and solar output alongside lower demand. The change reduced the region’s projected net import requirement. Italy’s pricing moved less than neighbouring markets, widening its premium.
Spot prices in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price dropped €24.50 to €145.63/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM fell €25.60 to €144.31/MWh. Bulgaria recorded the largest absolute decline among the markets covered, with IBEX down €28 to €133.80/MWh.
Wind, solar and demand outlook for the delivery day
Forecasts pointed to a stronger renewable supply picture. Average wind generation was expected to rise by 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW, while solar output increased by 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Combined, wind and solar were forecast at 12,110 MW, equivalent to about 42% of forecast regional consumption.
Demand was forecast to fall by 353 MW to 29,112 MW. With lower consumption and higher renewable production, projected net imports declined to just 88 MW from 725 MW a day earlier. Despite the near-balanced regional position, cross-border flows remained substantial on individual borders.
Cross-border flows and Italy’s price premium
Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down 486 MW. Net exports towards Italy increased by 124 MW to 1,326 MW. Italy’s price slipped only €1.10 to €201.96/MWh.
The Italian level left it €56.33/MWh above Hungary, compared with roughly €32.93/MWh a day earlier. The widening differential maintained a stronger price incentive for deliveries towards Italy, although realised trading margins depend on transmission access and delivery costs.
Diverging prices across southeastern Europe
Prices continued to diverge across markets covered in the region. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest at €102.94/MWh, down €7.10, with a gap of €42.69/MWh versus Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €24.10 to €108.08/MWh and Greece’s HENEX declined €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN dropped €15 to €115.92/MWh, keeping a discount of about €29.71/MWh versus Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, however, eased only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, placing it close to the Hungarian price and above several southern neighbours.
Central European pricing alignment and spreads vs Germany
Slovenia and Croatia stayed more closely aligned with higher-priced central European markets. Slovenia’s BSP fell €24.90 to €149.11/MWh while Croatia’s CROPEX declined €24.80 to €147.98/MWh. Austria settled at €155.21/MWh and Germany at €140.75/MWh.
Hungary’s premium over Germany edged up to €4.88/MWh as both markets registered substantial declines during the session period referenced by the spot quotes. Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, indicating closer alignment than the discounts seen in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia.
Forward quotations and gas market moves
Forward quotations weakened while still pricing electricity above the latest Hungarian spot level for the same delivery context referenced in the market data provided . Hungarian week 41 power fell €7 to €195/MWh, week 42 declined €6 to €199/MWh, and October dropped €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October quotation remained about €51.87/MWh above September 30 spot . Hungary’s week 41 forward spread over Germany widened by €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread edged up by a further amount to around €40/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas fell by €3.10 to €71.64/MWh and the Greek quotation declined by €1.90 to €59.60/MWh . October gas dropped by €3.50 to €71/MWh, while the fourth-quarter contract held at €74.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances eased £0
