Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price for Tuesday delivery reached €326.57/MWh, up €34.20/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX increased €16.90/MWh to €317.08/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN gained €18.50/MWh to €294.77/MWh. All three markets recorded their highest daily averages in the seven-day comparison period ending October 20.
Germany moved in the opposite direction, with German day-ahead power falling €12.80/MWh to €195.66/MWh. That change widened Hungary’s premium by €47/MWh to €130.91/MWh versus Germany. The wider spread persisted despite additional electricity scheduled into the region.
Regional day-ahead prices diverge from Germany
Romania’s day-ahead price rose to €307.24/MWh, North Macedonia to €306.44/MWh, and Bulgaria to €299.98/MWh. Prices were lower farther west, with Croatia at €271.33/MWh and Slovenia at €260.99/MWh. Greece increased to €247.82/MWh, while Albania fell about 9.1% to €255/MWh.
The regional supply outlook shifted mainly due to a steep reduction in wind generation across Hungary and Southeast Europe. Average wind output was forecast at 1,067 MW, down 1,847 MW or about 63% from the previous day. Solar generation was expected to rise by 411 MW to 5,534 MW, replacing less than a quarter of the lost wind output.
Wind shortfall lifts demand for imports and other generation
Average electricity demand was forecast to increase by 963 MW or 3.1% to 31,849 MW. With higher consumption alongside lower combined wind and solar production, the requirement for other generation and imports rose by approximately 2,399 MW. Demand remaining after wind and solar increased from 22,849 MW to 25,248 MW, up about 10.5%.
Regional net imports were scheduled to rise by 571 MW to 3,794 MW, equivalent to nearly 12% of forecast demand. Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces increased by 173 MW to 3,571 MW, while net imports from Italy rose by 305 MW to 422 MW. A reduction of exports towards Ukraine and Moldova by 93 MW accounted for the remaining improvement in the external balance.
The October 20 demand figures and commercial flow schedules describe the expected delivery-day balance, while detailed generation observations by fuel extend through October 19 .
Romania’s swing drives a tighter regional balance
Romania showed the largest deterioration among the larger national markets in the delivery-day balance. Its position shifted from 213 MW of net exports on Monday to 1,183 MW of projected net imports on Tuesday, a swing of 1,396 MW. Forecast generation fell to 4,874 MW from 6,250 MW as demand increased by only 20 MW to 6,057 MW.
Imports were expected to cover approximately 19.5% of Romanian consumption under the Tuesday schedule . Scheduled Hungarian deliveries into Romania rose to 1,030 MW from 406 MW, while Bulgarian deliveries increased to 643 MW from 72 MW. Romania also reduced scheduled exports to Serbia to 168 MW from 278 MW the previous day.
Hungary faced stronger onward-delivery needs while still relying on imports itself. Its projected net imports increased by 113 MW to 1,549 MW, covering approximately 31% of forecast domestic demand . Farther south, Greece’s projected net export surplus increased to 1,011 MW from 723 MW with scheduled deliveries toward Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania totaling a combined 1,170 MW.
The Hungarian premium relative to Greece widened further to €78.75/MWh despite the additional southern supply . Daily average prices and commercial schedules indicated continued market separation without identifying which transmission constraints were binding during specific hours.
Serbia and Montenegro see higher prices despite different balances
Serbia’s projected net imports declined by 217 MW to 1,009 MW as its generation balance improved to 2,820 MW and demand rose modestly to 3,829 MW . Imports still represented approximately 26% of expected consumption even with the smaller deficit versus Monday’s position.
Despite that improvement in its national balance, SEEPEX rose about 5.6%. Serbia remained the second-most expensive market in the daily comparison behind Hungary . The spread versus Hungary also changed: Serbia traded roughly €7.80/MWh above Hungary on Monday but moved into a €9.49/MWh discount on Tuesday as Hungary’s price increase outpaced Serbia’s.
Commercial schedules showed Serbia receiving electricity from several neighboring markets while sending an average of 601 MW toward Hungary . Deliveries into Serbia included 421 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 387 MW from Bulgaria, 355 MW from North Macedonia and 209 MW from Montenegro.
Montenegro combined domestic import needs with cross-border flows that remained sizable for Tuesday delivery . Its projected net imports increased to 42 MW while scheduled imports from Italy rose to 399 MW from 316 MW; at the same time it continued scheduling deliveries of 209 MW toward Serbia.
BELEN’s daily average stayed €22.31/MWh below Serbia even as its price increased by roughly 6.7%, indicating that access to Italian supply did not prevent Montenegro from tracking part of the broader regional rise .
Hourly spreads show peak/off-peak differences across markets
The daily averages masked differences between delivery hours across Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro . Hungary’s hourly day-ahead maximum reached €451/MWh compared with €396.60/MWh on Monday; Serbia’s maximum rose to €450/MWh from €404/MWh; Montenegro’s maximum increased to €395/MWh from €360/MWh.
Off-peak blocks were more expensive than peak blocks in several markets . Hungarian off-peak averaged €347.80/MWh versus €305.40/MWh for the peak block; Serbia showed off-peak at €326/MWh against a peak block at €308.20/MWh.
Greece recorded a larger gap between off-peak and peak pricing at €318.50/MWh versus €177.20/MWh during the standard peak block . Greece’s hourly minimum was €32.90/MWh while its hourly maximum reached €396.10/MWh.
The same pattern appeared consistent with solar easing prices during part of daytime blocks while supply remained expensive outside main solar hours . Greece’s daily average therefore did not reflect uniformly low prices throughout all hours of Tuesday delivery.
Forward pricing reflects higher near-term Hungarian premiums
Albania illustrated limits of a baseload headline as its daily average fell but its highest hourly price increased to €490/MWh . The highest hourly price among listed markets coincided with a daily range spanning from €100/MWh to €490/MWh.
The forward curve also showed stronger Hungarian pricing relative to Germany for nearby delivery periods . In forward prices dated October 19, Hungarian week-44 power rose by €7.50/MWh to €270/MWh while the corresponding German contract fell by €10/MWh to €174.50/MWh; this widened the Hungarian premium by €17.50/MWh to €95.50/MWh.
Hungarian November power increased by €3.50/MWh to €250/MWh against an unchanged German November price of €191.50/MWh for a spread of €58.50/MWh . Hungarian first-quarter-2027 baseload eased by €1.50/MWh to €222/MWh while calendar-2027 remained unchanged at €170/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas was quoted at €90.70/MWh up by €1.10/MWh while EU carbon allowances were around €85.40 per tonne, leaving gas-fired replacement generation exposed to fuel and emissions costs . Romanian nuclear availability also remained a supply risk: latest figures showed no Romanian nuclear output while Nuclearelectrica’s revised financial plan assumed both Cernavoda reactors would return on November 1 as a planning assumption .
Toward Tuesday delivery schedules reflected Romania moving toward imports approaching one-fifth of demand after shifting from a modest export surplus . Higher import schedules helped cover the shortfall but buyers still faced a Hungarian premium versus Germany of more than €130/MWh.
