Day-ahead electricity prices for Sept. 29 diverged across Southeast Europe, with rebounds in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and parts of the northern Balkans contrasted by deep discounts in Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and North Macedonia. The split was accompanied by changes in regional physical flows, with north-south and east-west trading corridors showing tighter conditions.
Price levels across SEE day-ahead markets
Hungary’s HUPX base price increased by €8.9/MWh to €170.11/MWh, while Romania rose €15.6 to €169.92/MWh and Bulgaria gained €15.7 to €161.82/MWh. Croatia reached €172.76/MWh and Slovenia settled at €174.01/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell to €110.06/MWh, Greece dropped to €121.97/MWh, Montenegro declined to €130.96/MWh and North Macedonia eased to €132.21/MWh.
The regional spread left Serbia trading almost €60/MWh below Hungary, while Greece was about €48/MWh under HUPX. Montenegro and North Macedonia were around €38-39/MWh cheaper than Hungary, and Albania at €147.58/MWh stayed roughly €23 below Hungary. Italy averaged about €203/MWh, around €93 above Serbia and about €81 above Greece.
Moves versus Germany and nearby hubs
The largest bilateral shift was between Hungary and Germany, where German day-ahead prices fell to around €165.83/MWh, leaving Hungary about €4.3/MWh higher. A day earlier Hungary had traded roughly €34/MWh below Germany, implying a swing of nearly €39/MWh in the bilateral spread. Austria stood at €180.55/MWh, while Italy remained the highest-priced major market at about €203/MWh.
Regional demand and cross-border flow changes
Combined Hungary and SEE consumption rose to 29,105 MW, up around 740 MW day on day. The region moved from a net export position of 1,288 MW on Sept. 28 to net imports of 555 MW on Sept. 29, a swing of more than 1.8 GW. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia/core direction reached about 1,367 MW, reversing the previous day’s 501 MW flow.
Hungary remained a net importer of roughly 1,007 MW, compared with 731 MW a day earlier, while domestic consumption increased to 4,516 MW against generation of around 3,509 MW. Commercial flows showed particularly strong imports from Slovakia and Romania, while Hungary continued exporting toward Croatia and Slovenia.
Romania stayed a net exporter but its surplus fell sharply to about 187 MW from 866 MW. Bulgaria’s exports also decreased to 571 MW from 1,212 MW. The reductions tightened the northern and eastern SEE balance as regional demand recovered from lower weekend levels.
Northern versus southern market behaviour
The southern markets showed different dynamics as Greece fell by €13.1/MWh to €121.97/MWh despite exporting more than 1 GW on average. Its hourly profile showed renewable-driven price compression, with the Greek peak-period average at only €55.7/MWh versus an off-peak average of €188.2/MWh; the minimum hourly price reached zero. The pattern indicated strong daytime renewable availability followed by a steep evening recovery.
Serbia’s baseload pricing remained lower as SEEPEX averaged €110.1/MWh, with peak power at only €103.1/MWh and a daily minimum of €9.8/MWh. The maximum still reached €240.1/MWh, indicating high intraday volatility despite the low daily average; Montenegro fell by more than €34/MWh to €131/MWh and North Macedonia dropped by about €18/MWh to €132.2/MWh.
The timing of low-price hours differed across markets: Greece’s deepest compression occurred during the solar-heavy daytime period, while Serbia’s minimum was recorded in the early hours. This pointed to a discount shaped by local supply, hourly demand patterns, cross-border capacity and transmission constraints rather than a single renewable factor alone.
Italy as an export outlet and forward commodity signals
Italy continued to act as the main high-price outlet for surplus SEE electricity, with regional exports toward Italy averaging about 1,245 MW. Italy traded around €203/MWh, while Montenegro’s interconnector flows reflected the commercial pull: it exported about 532 MW toward Italy on a baseload basis even though its overall system remained a small net importer. Power was drawn from neighboring Balkan systems and sent west through the submarine link.
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