Serbian day-ahead electricity prices for delivery on 2 October fell, while most neighbouring markets recorded increases. The move widened the discount to Hungary, with intraday patterns showing sharp evening peaks. The daily average decline did not prevent higher hourly supply costs later in the day.
Day-ahead settlements across SEE
SEEPEX settled at €137.92/MWh, down €12.30/MWh from the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX rose by €7.60/MWh to €171.27/MWh, leaving Serbian electricity priced €33.35/MWh lower. The gap widened by about €20/MWh in one session.
Romania also moved lower, slipping €2.60/MWh to €161.91/MWh. Elsewhere, prices strengthened, with Slovenia reaching €188.30/MWh, up €17.50/MWh. Croatia gained €9.30/MWh to €178.66/MWh.
The higher-price dispersion increased the potential value of supplying higher-priced markets from Serbia and the eastern Balkans. Realisable margins depend on hourly price differences, transmission capacity, and the cost of securing cross-border access.
Balkan market differentials versus Hungary
Montenegro’s BELEN rose by €28.70/MWh to €142.87/MWh, reversing much of its recent weakness. Albania recorded the largest daily increase, climbing €61/MWh to €158.90/MWh. North Macedonia advanced by €20.80/MWh to €136.75/MWh.
Despite those gains, all three remained below Hungary’s HUPX level. Montenegro traded at a €28.40/MWh discount, Albania at a €12.37/MWh discount, and North Macedonia at a €34.52/MWh discount. Greece remained the cheapest market in the report at €120.52/MWh, although its daily average rose by €9.40/MWh.
Bulgaria increased by €3.80/MWh to €138.63/MWh. Both Bulgaria and Greece stayed substantially below Hungary and the western part of the region.
Supply-demand balance and renewable output changes
The price strengthening coincided with an improving aggregate supply balance across the region covered in the report. Forecast average demand across Hungary and southeastern Europe eased to 29,086 MW, about 297 MW lower than the previous day.
The region’s net export position increased to 593 MW, from 248 MW. Forecast solar generation rose by 1,731 MW to 6,539 MW, more than offsetting a decline in wind output of 1,016 MW, down to 4,923 MW.
The combined renewable change aligned with lower demand, though its impact varied between markets and delivery hours.
