Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on ICE opened the second week of July at a weekly low settlement of $71.99/bbl on Monday, July 6, which was almost unchanged from the previous Friday. Prices moved higher during the week, reaching a peak of $78.02/bbl on July 8 before easing in the final sessions. On Friday, July 10, Brent settled at $76.01/bbl, up 5.4% versus the previous Friday, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
The rise in crude oil prices was linked to renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Military actions by both countries before the start of the week increased concerns about possible disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The route is described as critical for around 20% of global oil and gas trade. Even with ongoing diplomatic discussions, uncertainty over potential supply disruptions kept a risk premium in oil prices through the week.
TTF gas futures rise amid LNG supply security worries
European natural gas markets also posted gains over the same period. TTF gas futures for the front-month contract on ICE fell to a weekly low of €44.13/MWh on Monday, July 6, before rising steadily to a weekly high of €50.10/MWh on Thursday, July 9. That level was the highest since May 20. On Friday, July 10, prices eased to €48.66/MWh, while still remaining 7.6% above the previous Friday’s settlement.
The increase in gas prices reflected concerns tied to LNG supply security and Middle East tensions. Higher risks for LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of disruptions to global gas flows, supporting stronger European pricing. Prices moderated slightly toward week-end as diplomatic contacts continued between Washington and Tehran . European gas inventories stayed below their five-year seasonal average, contributing to tighter market conditions.
EEX carbon allowance futures fluctuate after early-week peak
CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract on EEX reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €81.81/t on Monday, July 6. The settlement was 1.5% higher than the previous Friday and marked the highest level since February 5. Prices then declined during the week, dropping to a minimum of €79.04/t on July 8 . By Friday, July 10, the settlement price stood at €79.21/t, which was 1.7% lower than the previous Friday.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reported that European energy commodity markets in the second week of July were shaped by geopolitical risks, LNG supply uncertainty and gas market fundamentals . Oil and gas prices received support from concerns about potential Middle East disruptions, while carbon allowance prices were relatively stable after reaching multi-month highs.
