Power prices in Southeast Europe, particularly in Hungary, experienced significant increases for delivery on 17 March. This surge can be attributed to diminished import flows and a decline in wind generation, which have tightened the supply-demand balance in the region. As the working week commenced, electricity demand saw a notable rebound.
Day-ahead baseload prices escalated across major exchanges, with Hungary’s HUPX clearing at €137.27/MWh (+€26.5 day-on-day). Romania’s OPCOM reached €126.24/MWh (+€22.5), while Bulgaria’s IBEX recorded €121.31/MWh (+€20.9). In the western Balkans, Croatia’s CROPEX rose to €130.45/MWh (+€30.5), and Slovenia’s BSP increased to €131.29/MWh (+€31.6). Serbia’s SEEPEX traded at €109.53/MWh (+€13.8).
The most pronounced increase was observed in Albania, where ALPEX surged to €175.43/MWh (+€96), driven by ongoing volatility linked to hydro power and tighter regional balancing conditions.
This price rally coincided with a marked rise in electricity demand, which climbed to 34,462 MW (+2,380 MW day-on-day). Although temperatures remained mild at approximately 8–9°C, the recovery in demand was sufficient to strain the system amid constrained supply.
Simultaneously, import availability weakened significantly. Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region fell to -1,029 MW, a decrease from the previous day, while inflows from core markets such as Austria and Slovakia dropped by 658 MW. This reduction in cross-border inflows diminished system flexibility and increased reliance on domestic generation.
Total generation saw a modest increase to 32,385 MW (+740 MW), primarily driven by a rebound in hydro output (+871 MW) and higher thermal generation from coal and gas sources. However, this was countered by a sharp decline in wind production, which fell by 558 MW day-on-day, limiting renewable contributions during critical hours. Solar output also decreased due to seasonal and intraday variability.
The decline in wind generation emerged as a crucial factor influencing prices, particularly during evening peak hours when solar output diminishes. Intraday price curves across HUPX, BSP, and OPCOM displayed significant evening peaks, with hourly prices exceeding €200/MWh, highlighting tightening margins during high-demand periods.
On the interconnection front, the spread between Hungary and Germany narrowed to approximately €11/MWh, a substantial drop that reduced arbitrage opportunities for imports from Western Europe. This convergence with core European markets occurred alongside reduced physical flows into the region, further reinforcing local price pressures.
Fuel markets offered limited respite as Austrian gas hub prices rose to €52.12/MWh (+€1.5), while carbon prices remained stable, maintaining elevated marginal generation costs for gas- and coal-fired plants.
The patterns of cross-border flows indicated a continued reliance on intra-SEE balancing, with stronger flows from Romania and Bulgaria towards neighboring markets while traditional west-to-east imports weakened. This trend underscores ongoing structural constraints related to interconnection capacity and market coupling.
Looking forward, market participants anticipate that prices will remain elevated in the short term, with system balance remaining highly sensitive to renewable output and cross-border flows. Any further decline in wind generation or additional import constraints could sustain upward price pressure, particularly during peak hours; however, stronger solar output later in the week may provide some relief.
The current market dynamics reflect a tightening regional system where even modest changes in generation or imports can trigger significant price fluctuations across Southeast European power markets.
