The Southeast Europe (SEE) electricity market has experienced a notable shift towards tighter system balance at the beginning of the week, primarily driven by a significant price rebound in Hungary. The day-ahead market prices across Central and Southeast Europe reflected this trend, with Hungary’s HUPX emerging as the regional price leader at 110.81 €/MWh. This increase has influenced neighboring markets, with Romania clearing at 103.72 €/MWh, Bulgaria and Greece both at 100.39 €/MWh, Croatia at 99.92 €/MWh, and Slovenia at 99.66 €/MWh. Serbia’s price also rose to 95.75 €/MWh, indicating a recovery towards the regional mean after a dip on Sunday. In contrast, North Macedonia (87.77 €/MWh), Albania (79.44 €/MWh), and Montenegro (67.13 €/MWh) remained at structurally lower prices, unable to counterbalance the overall regional uplift.
The expansion of the Central European premium was a key feature of this trading session, with the HU-DE spread widening to 37.32 €/MWh, marking a significant day-on-day increase. This indicates Hungary’s role as the marginal pricing node for the region, effectively transmitting higher price signals into SEE while maintaining internal market coupling among Balkan countries. The relatively compressed spreads within the region suggest that current price formations are influenced more by external factors than by localized congestion or isolation.
Cross-border flow dynamics have shifted markedly, with the region now in an import-dependent position, recording a net import of -158 MW compared to previous exports. Core imports surged to 1,943 MW, underscoring an increased reliance on inflows from Central Europe. Strong north-to-south transmission was observed across key corridors linking Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Italy, with aggregate flows exceeding 5.5 GW. This trend confirms that marginal pricing in SEE is increasingly determined by imported generation rather than domestic supply.
Fundamental shifts were evident compared to the previous weekend; total consumption rose to 32,599 MW—an increase of 3,780 MW—while generation fell to 31,283 MW, down by 552 MW. The renewable energy profile weakened significantly as wind output decreased to 1,875 MW and hydro generation fell to 6,422 MW. Although solar generation increased to 4,290 MW, it was not enough to compensate for the decline in dispatchable renewables. Consequently, thermal generation filled the gap with coal contributing 6,403 MW, gas providing 5,071 MW, and nuclear output at 5,604 MW—this combination aligns with the observed upward pressure on market prices.
Intraday price structures exhibited pronounced volatility characteristics typical of the region’s electricity market. Midday prices were notably compressed due to solar saturation; however, evening hours highlighted extreme scarcity with Hungary reaching a maximum price of 250 €/MWh and Serbia peaking at 185.5 €/MWh during hours 19–20. This steep intraday curve indicates that trading value is concentrated in hourly optimization strategies rather than baseload positioning.
In Serbia’s SEEPEX market, the day-ahead average surged to 95.8 €/MWh from a previous low of 70.2 €/MWh. Notably, off-peak prices reached 116.0 €/MWh while peak prices were recorded at only 75.5 €/MWh—this inversion suggests stronger pricing dynamics during non-solar hours and highlights ongoing evening scarcity challenges typical in systems with increasing solar penetration but limited storage capabilities.
The forward markets displayed firmness but did not entirely mirror spot market volatility; Hungarian forward prices for Week 12 were set at 118 €/MWh and Week 13 at 113 €/MWh while April-26 was priced at 100 €/MWh and Cal-26 at 109 €/MWh. This indicates that the forward curve is reflecting expectations of a structurally tight yet stable system rather than prolonged spot spikes. On the fuel side, CEGH gas traded at approximately 50.66 €/MWh while EUA carbon allowances fluctuated between 69–75 €/t based on tenor.
Recent structural developments in market integration are noteworthy; CROPEX’s announced expansion into Slovenia is expected to enhance liquidity and reduce persistent price spreads over time between these two markets. This evolution suggests a gradual transition from structural arbitrage opportunities toward shorter-duration flow-driven inefficiencies.
Flow patterns reveal continued dominance of key corridors in price formation across SEE markets such as Romania to Hungary and Bulgaria to Serbia—indicating strong interconnections through limited high-impact transmission routes. Hungary and Greece remain pivotal demand anchors while Romania and Bulgaria provide export support depending on hydro and nuclear availability in their respective markets.
The prevailing trading signal indicates a regime characterized by robust demand recovery coupled with weaker renewable output and increased reliance on imports alongside pronounced intraday scarcity premiums. As Hungary continues to drive pricing trends within SEE’s relatively tight band—excluding southern markets which remain structurally discounted—the focus for market participants will likely shift toward cross-border spreads into Central Europe and flexibility-driven trading strategies rather than traditional baseload exposure.
