Italy’s import dependence kept regional power spreads open in Week 24, with Italy acting as the main import market in Southern Europe. Italy’s day-ahead price fell by 3.8%, while it remained the highest-priced SEE comparator at €123.17/MWh. The premium compared with Serbia at €78.22/MWh, Türkiye at €22.85/MWh, Greece at €91.53/MWh, and Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh.
Demand-led drivers behind Italy’s spread
The spread was primarily supported by demand dynamics in Italy. Italian electricity consumption rose by 319.8 GWh (6.7%) to 5.12 TWh, representing the largest absolute weekly demand increase in the region. The stronger load profile coincided with higher reliance on cross-border supply, as net imports increased by 130.9 GWh (13.8%) to 1.08 TWh.
Tighter generation mix and thermal output
Alongside the demand increase, Italy’s internal generation mix tightened during the week. Thermal output increased by 191.1 GWh (17.6%), driven by both coal and gas-fired plants. With higher demand, higher imports, and higher thermal generation occurring together, Italy maintained a persistent price premium even as electricity prices softened more broadly across the region.
Cross-border effects for neighbouring systems
The structural spread also aligned with changes in neighbouring trade positions. Bulgaria expanded net exports by 103.2%, Greece significantly reduced net imports, and Türkiye strengthened its export position by 53.1%. During the week, Italy absorbed a large portion of regional surplus generation.
Interconnector capacity as the limiting factor
For market participants, Italy’s role remains central to SEE trading dynamics when demand increases. Cross-border capacity becomes more valuable for moving power into Italy, and lower-priced Balkan generation can find a commercial outlet more readily. In that context, the key constraint is described as shifting away from demand levels toward the availability of interconnector capacity to transmit that value.
Italy continues to function as a price anchor and import sink for the region, supporting commercially relevant SEE cross-border spreads during periods of strong demand and high renewable output across neighbouring markets.
