Türkiye’s electricity market stayed significantly separated from broader European price formation in Week 24. The average wholesale price was €22.85/MWh, below the rest of the Southeast European range. Serbia averaged €78.22/MWh, while Italy recorded €123.17/MWh.
The lower pricing level was not linked to weaker consumption. Electricity demand in Türkiye rose by 3.8% to 6.74 TWh, one of the largest absolute increases in the region. The divergence was instead tied to changes in generation.
Renewables and hydropower shifts shape wholesale pricing
Variable renewable output increased by 67.1%, with wind generation up by 105.9%. The stronger renewable contribution helped limit wholesale prices even as load conditions increased. Hydropower generation fell by 229 GWh, or -8.6%.
The reduction in hydropower affected system flexibility during the week. With renewables higher and hydropower lower, the balance shifted toward other generation sources. This combination influenced how marginal costs were set across the market.
Thermal generation mix favors coal over gas
Thermal generation absorbed much of the gap left by weaker hydropower output. Coal-fired generation increased by 260.6 GWh, or 21.3%. Gas-fired generation declined by 20.8%.
The decline in gas output reduced gas’s role in marginal price setting during the period. Coal-based balancing supported a lower overall cost environment, reinforcing Türkiye’s structurally lower wholesale price level.
Exports rise as renewables improve availability
Türkiye also strengthened its external position in Week 24, with net exports rising by 53.1%. Higher renewable availability alongside low domestic prices improved export potential. Structural transmission constraints and market fragmentation continued to limit full convergence with European price zones.
Within Southeast Europe, Türkiye functioned as a flexibility source while maintaining a structurally separate pricing profile. Its combination of large demand, strong renewable growth, coal-based balancing, and consistently low wholesale prices kept it only partially aligned with pricing signals seen in Italy and the wider SEE power system.
