During the second half of May, the Southeast European electricity market moved lower as stronger hydro conditions, faster solar generation and improved wind output offset higher gas and carbon price pressure. The shift was reflected in how the market behaved more like a renewable-led system than a fuel-led one. The change also coincided with widening price differences between flexible assets and inflexible generation, reports Electricity.Trade.
Demand and generation mix shift across the region
Average regional demand excluding Greece eased from 22,578 MW in the first half of May to 21,927 MW in the second half despite warmer weather. Over the same period, hydro generation rose to 6,580 MW, solar output reached 5,632 MW, and wind generation climbed to 2,833 MW. Renewable technologies supplied the majority of electricity across Southeast Europe, while coal and nuclear generation both declined.
The impact of the changing supply mix was visible across every major power exchange. Average prices moved lower in multiple national markets during the second half of May. The pattern aligned with higher renewable output levels across the region.
National price corrections on major exchanges
Albania recorded the largest correction. Average ALPEX prices fell from €98.60/MWh to €81.16/MWh, down by more than 17%. Strong hydrology supported Albania’s position as one of the region’s lowest-cost generators and reinforced its role as a major exporter during wet periods.
Montenegro followed a similar direction, with BELEN prices dropping from €98.76/MWh to €83.92/MWh. That placed Montenegro among the cheapest markets in Southeast Europe. The pricing pattern increasingly tracked Albania and North Macedonia rather than Croatia or Hungary.
North Macedonia also saw downward pressure, with MEMO prices declining from €97.17/MWh to €82.66/MWh. The move was linked to lower import costs, stronger regional renewable production and increased market integration. In larger markets, declines were less steep but still material.
Serbia’s SEEPEX averaged €91.95/MWh, compared with €101.61/MWh. Prices fell by almost 10%, but Serbia remained more expensive than Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia. The relative level was associated with Serbia’s central position in regional trading flows and balancing markets.
Bulgaria’s IBEX decreased from €104.98/MWh to €97.41/MWh. In Romania, OPCOM dropped from €115.88/MWh (the source figure is shown as “MWhto”) to €103.64/MWh. Even after the correction, Romania stayed among the highest-priced markets in Southeast Europe due to transmission constraints and its balancing role.
Greece’s HENEX continued to trend lower as renewable penetration increased. Prices averaged €85.81/MWh, down from €92.36/MWh. The decline reinforced concerns among solar investors about falling merchant revenues and more frequent negative-price periods.
Croatia’s CROPEX averaged €101.52/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP averaged €101.15/MWh. Both markets remained relatively resilient compared with southern Balkan exchanges. Their smaller corrections were tied to closer coupling with Central European pricing.
Daylight-evening price gap widens as flexibility value rises
The biggest structural change during May was not only the fall in average prices but also an expanded gap between daylight and evening hours. Solar generation continued suppressing midday prices as photovoltaic output increased and displaced thermal units during daylight hours. After solar output faded in the evening, gas, hydro and flexible thermal units regained importance, supporting higher prices during peak consumption periods.
This intraday pattern increased relative value for assets able to shift energy across time rather than only produce volume. Battery storage, pumped hydro, flexible gas generation and dispatchable hydro facilities all gained relative value during May.
Cross-border flows shift toward Italy; gas and carbon rise alongside power declines
