Week 24’s electricity balance across Southeast Europe showed a two-part market structure. Rapidly expanding renewable generation coincided with rising demand, while thermal generation compensated for lower hydropower output.
Wind and solar rise as demand increases
Wind and solar production increased across the region, supporting higher variable renewable output. Variable renewables rose by 16.6% to 3.64 TWh, with wind up 28.1% to 1.40 TWh and solar increasing by 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. Electricity consumption also climbed by 4.6% to 15.85 TWh. Day-ahead prices were capped in most SEE markets during the period of stronger renewable output.
Hydropower declines and thermal generation increases
Hydropower generation moved lower alongside the renewables increase. Regional hydro output fell by 7.5% to 3.70 TWh, driven primarily by Türkiye’s reduction of 229 GWh and Bulgaria’s drop of 42.9 GWh. Hydropower is typically used for fast-response balancing, including intraday and evening demand fluctuations.
Total thermal output rose by 8.7% to 4.52 TWh, stepping in to cover the hydro shortfall. Coal and lignite increased by 24.4% to 2.14 TWh, while gas-fired generation declined by 2.4%. The increase in coal-based generation was mainly attributed to Türkiye, Italy and Serbia.
Regional price outcomes across major markets
The price results reflected the balance between renewables influence and thermal coverage when hydro weakens. Serbia recorded the largest decline, falling to €78.22/MWh, followed by Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh and Croatia at €92.02/MWh. Italy remained higher at €123.17/MWh. The Italian level was supported by stronger demand and continued reliance on imports.
The Week 24 pattern showed renewables shaping price levels while system security still depended on thermal generation during weaker hydropower conditions. This was particularly relevant when hydropower output fell, allowing coal and lignite to re-enter the marginal stack in Türkiye, Serbia and parts of the Balkans.
