During Week 23, Italy recorded the highest weekly day-ahead power prices in Southeast Europe. The Italian weekly day-ahead average increased by 3.7% to €128.09/MWh, staying above neighbouring SEE markets and well above Türkiye’s structurally low price level.
The price gap across the region remained wide. Greece averaged €89.25/MWh, while Serbia posted €99.63/MWh, Croatia €99.29/MWh, Bulgaria €100.83/MWh, Romania €102.23/MWh, and Hungary €103.15/MWh.
Italy-Balkans spread and regional trading flows
On that basis, Italy traded at a premium of nearly €39/MWh versus Greece. It also held a premium of around €27–29/MWh compared with several Balkan markets clustered near the €100/MWh level.
The premium continued to align with Italy’s role as a destination for regional power flows where interconnector capacity allows. Even with net imports falling by 14.1% during the week, Italy remained the largest net importer in the SEE region, taking in 950.91 GWh of net imports.
This combination of reduced imports alongside the highest price level pointed to continued market tightness in Italy. For regional participants, it maintained conditions for value capture when cross-border capacity is available and flows can be scheduled.
Constraints affecting price convergence across interconnectors
Balkan generators could benefit from the Italy-linked spread through assets in neighbouring markets, including hydro, lignite, gas, wind and solar. The ability to export depends on whether routes are available and whether congestion allows flows.
For traders, the Italy-Balkans spread supports activity across scheduling, hedging, transmission rights and congestion management. At the same time, price convergence is not guaranteed because interconnector constraints and scheduled flow limits can limit physical transfers.
Internal bottlenecks and market coupling conditions also influence how much convergence occurs between zones. While a Week 23 flow map showed active exchanges across the region, persistent price differences indicated that physical and commercial constraints remained relevant.
Fuel-linked pricing risk and implications for regional markets
Italy’s pricing structure also reflected exposure to gas-linked marginal pricing. This exposure persisted even in weeks when gas-fired generation falls.
With TTF prices near €49/MWh, Italian power retained a fuel-risk premium that could widen against markets with stronger hydro or lignite output or cheaper domestic supply. That dynamic affected how spreads developed relative to other SEE pricing levels.
For Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and the Western Balkans, Italy’s higher-price signal supported cross-border trading economics for flexible generation. It also exposed import-dependent consumers to regional price volatility as spreads translated into higher costs when domestic prices moved upward.
Interconnector investment linked to persistent spreads
The premium also reinforced the investment case for interconnectors and grid reinforcement where price spreads persist. Transmission capacity can carry economic value when it enables transfer from lower-cost zones to higher-priced areas.
Projects that increase transfer capability between lower-cost Balkan zones and higher-priced Italian or Central European markets were identified as potential drivers of trading gains. They were also associated with improving security of supply and reducing price fragmentation across coupled markets.
Week 23 showed Italy continuing to act as a high-price sink for the region. For Balkan power markets, that maintained export optionality tied to location and interconnector access.
