Whenever electricity demand increases and wind output weakens, Southeast Europe’s power balance continues to rely on conventional generation. Week 23 showed this pattern, with regional thermal generation rising 24.5% week on week to 4.22 TWh. Coal, lignite and gas-fired plants increased output to address the tighter system balance.
The largest contribution came from Türkiye, where thermal generation more than doubled. Output increased by 103.2% to 2.03 TWh, driven by higher coal and gas production. Turkish coal generation rose 55.7%, while gas-fired output jumped 278.1%.
Türkiye’s increase followed a 31.0% surge in Turkish electricity demand. The system required a large conventional response despite stronger solar and hydro output during the same period.
Country-level changes in thermal generation during Week 23
Greece also raised thermal generation, with lignite output up 66.2%. Serbia recorded higher thermal production as well, contributing to the regional increase.
Romania increased thermal output by 5.2%, supported by stronger gas-fired generation. Italy moved in the opposite direction, with thermal generation down 16.7%, mainly due to lower gas-fired production.
Even with the decline in Italy’s thermal output, Italy remained the region’s highest-priced market at €128.09/MWh. The week’s pricing and dispatch outcomes reflected differing national generation patterns within Southeast Europe.
Balancing role of coal, lignite and gas in the price stack
The dispatch changes indicate that renewable growth has not removed thermal generation from the Southeast Europe price stack. Instead, it has altered when coal, lignite and gas-fired units are needed.
Coal, lignite and gas increasingly provide balancing during evening ramps, weak-wind periods, hydro shortfalls and high-demand weeks. In that context, thermal assets are linked to system security and marginal pricing rather than only baseload volume.
This week-to-week relationship also aligns with changes in wind and demand levels reported for Week 23. Wind fell by 15.5% while demand rose by 8.2%, keeping conventional plants in operation.
Fuel costs and policy exposure for thermal units
Gas prices near €50/MWh keep gas-fired power expensive in the market environment described for Week 23. Lignite and coal remain important in several Southeast European systems but carry carbon and policy risks.
Thermal units can generate value during tight hours when balancing is required. Their longer-term role is exposed to decarbonisation pressures, emissions costs, plant age considerations and regulatory developments affecting power markets.
Securit y-of-supply versus transition timing
The transition risk is described as two-sided: retiring thermal capacity too quickly can create security-of-supply problems and price spikes. Keeping it too long can increase carbon exposure, reduce investment in flexibility and weaken alignment with EU climate policy.
Southeast Europe’s markets are still managing this balance as renewables expand alongside conventional generation needs under varying wind and demand conditions.
The same week highlights that the question is not whether thermal generation disappears immediately, but how quickly batteries, hydro flexibility, demand response and interconnectors can reduce the need for thermal ramping when wind weakens.
Until those flexibility resources reduce reliance on conventional ramping, thermal generation remains the backstop for tight-hour price setting and reliability support while exposing the region to fuel and carbon risk.
