Electricity prices across southeastern Europe increased sharply for delivery on 15 October, with Hungary and Serbia trading above €250/MWh. The move was linked to a reversal in Romania’s electricity balance, stronger regional demand and lower forecast wind generation. Cross-border trading markets faced added pressure as day-ahead prices diverged across the region.
On HUPX, the Hungarian day-ahead baseload price rose by €28.9/MWh to €252.81/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX gained €18.1/MWh to €252.74/MWh, leaving the two markets closely aligned. Romania’s OPCOM advanced €26.8/MWh to €248.44/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €18.8/MWh to €233.29/MWh.
Albania recorded the largest daily jump, with ALPEX up €113.6/MWh to €249.56/MWh, narrowing the gap with Hungary and Serbia. Montenegro’s BELEN rose €14/MWh to €223.17/MWh, while North Macedonia reached €222.30/MWh. Trading also showed a wider divide between higher-priced central and eastern European markets and comparatively cheaper Greece.
Romania reverses from net exports to imports
Romania recorded a major change in regional trading flows, moving from scheduled net exports of 749 MW on 14 October to net imports of 629 MW on 15 October. The shift amounted to a 1,378 MW reversal in its daily average electricity balance. Romanian electricity consumption increased from 5,724 MW to 6,096 MW, while forecast domestic generation fell from 6,473 MW to 5,467 MW.
The higher demand alongside lower domestic output increased Romania’s reliance on electricity delivered through neighbouring systems, particularly Bulgaria. Scheduled commercial flows from Bulgaria into Romania rose to approximately 1,278 MW, compared with 657 MW the previous day. At the same time, Romanian exports towards Hungary dropped from 1,213 MW to 121 MW.
The altered flow pattern changed supply available to central European markets and supported a closer price relationship between Romania and Hungary. Across Hungary and the wider SEE region, net electricity imports increased by 565 MW to 2,267 MW, against forecast consumption of 32,017 MW, up 749 MW day on day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia rose to 2,661 MW, an increase of 890 MW.
Serbia keeps high prices despite stronger generation
Serbia continued operating with a substantial electricity deficit even as higher domestic generation reduced its scheduled import requirement. Forecast consumption increased to 3,975 MW, from 3,820 MW the previous day. Domestic generation rose from 2,628 MW to 2,948 MW, cutting net imports from 1,192 MW to 1,027 MW.
Commercial schedules indicated Serbia importing an average of approximately 370 MW from Bulgaria, 354 MW from North Macedonia and 293 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Imports were also set at about 214 MW from Romania and 183 MW from Montenegro. Serbia was simultaneously scheduled to export 476 MW towards Hungary.
SEEPEX remained among the highest-priced markets in the region despite stronger generation levels. The market reached an hourly maximum of €368.6/MWh at hour 20 and a minimum of €189.9/MWh at hour 14 . The intraday spread of nearly €179/MWh reflected the commercial value of flexible generation and demand response across different time periods.
Montenegro prices below Serbia and Hungary; cross-border flows matter
Montenegro maintained a smaller net export position as both domestic consumption and generation declined . Average demand fell from 420 MW to 362 MW while generation decreased from 456 MW to 378 MW. Scheduled net exports were approximately 16 MW, down from 36 MW.
BELEN’s baseload price was €223.17/MWh, representing a discount of about €29.57/MWh versus Serbia and about €29.64/MWh versus Hungary . Montenegro’s commercial position reflected cross-border infrastructure schedules showing average imports of approximately 192 MW from Italy alongside exports of 183 MW towards Serbia.
The session also highlighted that daily average price gaps do not determine trading outcomes by themselves . Hourly spreads, allocated transmission capacity, contracted delivery positions and congestion charges were described as decisive for cross-border profitability between Montenegro, Italy and Serbia.
Greece remains low-price; solar rises while wind falls
Greece continued as the region’s principal low-price market with HENEX day-ahead baseload averaging €160.54/MWh. The figure increased by €21.6/MWh versus the prior session . The Hungarian premium over Greece widened to €92.28/MWh while the Hungarian-German spread rose to €65.51/MWh compared with about €44.9/MWh earlier.
Greek hourly pricing reached zero during hour 14 before recovering to an evening maximum of €296.5/MWh . The Greek peak-period average was €97.3/MWh versus an off-peak average of €223.7/MWh. Greece was scheduled for net exports of approximately 1,700 MW, including flows towards Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
Bulgaria shifted simultaneously from net imports of 74 MW into exports of 717 MW, supported by an increase in forecast generation . Regional renewable forecasts showed solar averaging 5,932 MW, up by 2,631 MW, while wind was expected to fall by 1,571 MW to 5,114 MW. The combined renewable increase offset only part of changes in demand and other generation sources.
Forward spreads widen; carbon eases; battery projects progress
The forward curve continued pricing regional risk premiums alongside spot volatility . The Hungarian week 43 contract rose to €270/MWh versus €201.50/MWh for the corresponding German contract, implying a forward premium of €68.50/MWh . Hungary’s November baseload contract stood at €242.50/MWh against Germany’s €195/MWh.
The Hungarian calendar-year 2027 baseload contract was quoted at €168.50/MWh compared with Germany’s €145.50/MWh . EU carbon allowances were quoted at approximately €87.14 per tonne while November coal futures declined to €148 per tonne . The easing in carbon and coal indicators did not prevent spot prices rising across southeastern Europe.
The session’s hourly spreads supported interest in flexible assets including batteries capable of providing arbitrage alongside balancing services . Helleniq Energy plans at least 500 MW of battery storage over the next three years . R.Power is progressing a standalone battery project at Studina with a capacity of 100 MW/200 MWh, alongside its larger Scornicesti development.
The October 15 pattern showed strong price convergence between Serbia and Hungary alongside large north-south spreads and changing import requirements . For market participants managing physical exposure, the focus remained on hourly location and timing where daytime renewable output can depress prices while evening scarcity returns within hours .
