April 2026 witnessed a notable correction in the Central and South East European power markets, characterized by a substantial decline in wholesale electricity prices across the HU+SEE region. This shift was driven by several factors, including lower gas prices, deteriorating fossil-fired generation economics, decreased consumption, and unprecedented solar production levels.
The benchmark price on HUPX settled at €96.55/MWh, a significant drop from €117.35/MWh in March, marking a month-on-month decrease of 17.7%. Other exchanges in the region reflected similar trends: Croatian CROPEX averaged €90.42/MWh, Slovenian BSP at €88.79/MWh, Bulgarian IBEX at €90.99/MWh, Serbian SEEPEX at €91.51/MWh, and Greek HENEX falling to €88.72/MWh. This correction brought regional prices to their lowest since August 2025.
Despite the overall price decline, the structural spread between Hungary and Germany remained elevated, averaging €18.04/MWh, slightly above March levels. This suggests ongoing congestion and constraints from Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC) that hinder price convergence between Central Western Europe (CWE) and Southeast Europe (SEE). The DE-HU MaxExchange capacity has also remained weak, reflecting challenges in cross-border electricity flow.
A significant development in April was the surge in solar generation, which reached a new record for the month with peak output averaging 8,272 MW, up 15.6% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year. This increase fundamentally altered intraday price dynamics, leading to negative average prices during peak solar hours on HUPX, with a total of 84 negative-price hours recorded compared to just 18 hours in March. In contrast, Germany experienced 123 negative-price hours.
The impact of this solar surge created a market increasingly divided between low-priced midday solar hours and high-cost evening balancing periods. Evening pricing remained elevated, with HUPX averaging around €209/MWh in H21, indicating that flexible generation and storage capabilities are gaining importance even amid bearish market conditions.
The economics of fossil-fired generation deteriorated sharply during this period. Coal generation fell by nearly 2,000 MW month-on-month, while gas-fired generation decreased by approximately 2,200 MW. Notably, coal output reached its lowest level for April since at least 2016, significantly impacting Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s export positions due to operational impacts linked to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Serbia’s power balance showed a marked deterioration compared to April 2025, with its net export position weakening by around 440 MW year-on-year. This decline was attributed to lower outputs across various generation sources: coal-fired generation decreased by 200 MW, hydro output by 60 MW, and gas-fired generation by 75 MW.
The evolving landscape of the SEE market indicates that pricing is increasingly influenced not only by domestic production costs but also by external factors such as CBAM-related export distortions, declining coal profitability, negative spillovers from EU solar oversupply, FBMC congestion constraints, demand from Ukraine, and scarcity during evening ramping periods.
The report highlights exports towards Ukraine and Moldova as an additional factor tightening regional supply-demand balances while increasing dependence on imports from CORE countries and Italy. Hydro generation also weakened significantly in April, declining by 1,105 MW month-on-month, while wind generation fell by around 14% month-on-month, partially offsetting the gains from solar production.
This reliance on solar-heavy midday structures raises concerns about vulnerability during evening hours when demand peaks. The need for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), flexible gas generation, ancillary services, balancing assets, and optimized interconnections is becoming increasingly apparent.
Austrian CEGH spot gas prices averaged €47.17/MWh, down 11.3% month-on-month, although still above levels seen in April 2025. However, lower gas prices did not improve the economics for gas-fired generation; Clean Spark Spreads remained deeply negative due to weak daytime power prices and high carbon costs associated with emissions trading.
The report indicates that high-efficiency gas plants incurred base-load losses of approximately €23.1/MWh, while low-efficiency units faced losses nearing €38.7/MWh. These figures signal a challenging environment for future thermal investments as merchant gas generation struggles under current market conditions dominated by solar oversupply.
The carbon market remained elevated during this period, with EUA prices averaging €73.8/t, about 5.5% higher than March levels. The introduction of CBAM has reshaped electricity trading dynamics in the Western Balkans; commercial cross-border exchanges reportedly declined by roughly 25% in Q1 2026, despite Western Balkan power prices being around €30/MWh lower than those in neighboring EU markets.
This mechanism is eroding traditional arbitrage opportunities as imported electricity is assessed under default fossil-carbon assumptions regardless of actual generation mix. Montenegro’s EPCG reported approximately €13 million in losses linked to CBAM implementation in Q1.
The strategic implications for Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro are clear: coal-heavy export structures are rapidly losing competitiveness while renewable-backed exports with verifiable emissions attributes are becoming more valuable. This shift moves the market toward a combined electricity-and-carbon valuation framework.
The regional market is transitioning into a new phase distinct from the energy crisis cycle experienced between 2021 and 2023. April 2026 highlighted the coexistence of midday negative pricing alongside evening scarcity premiums and structurally weaker fossil economics influenced by carbon-border distortions.
This evolving landscape underscores that asset value is increasingly contingent on hourly positioning rather than solely relying on baseload generation strategies.
