The Southeast European (SEE) power markets have seen a notable uptick in electricity prices during Week 19, specifically from May 4 to May 10, 2026. Prices across the region have surged above €100/MWh, with the exception of Türkiye, driven by a combination of lower wind generation, increased demand, and higher thermal dispatch. This price escalation has been further exacerbated by elevated CO₂ and gas risk premiums stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Italy continues to lead as the most expensive market in SEE, recording a price of €131.47/MWh. Following closely are Romania at €123.34/MWh, Hungary at €122.62/MWh, Croatia at €117.37/MWh, Bulgaria at €111.41/MWh, and Serbia at €111.36/MWh. Serbia’s price rose by 29.25%, yet the more pronounced increases were observed in Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania, indicating a spillover effect from Central European market conditions. In contrast, Türkiye remains significantly detached from these trends with a price of €16.14/MWh.
Demand across the region increased by 4.34% week-on-week to reach 15,191 GWh, largely driven by gains in Italy and Türkiye. Italy’s demand rose by 416.3 GWh while Türkiye added 253.6 GWh; however, Serbia experienced a decline of 3.12% in demand, which contributed to a less aggressive price increase compared to its neighbors.
The primary factor influencing this market shift is the shortfall in renewable energy sources (RES). The output from variable RES fell by 19% to 2,808.6 GWh, with wind generation down by 32.9%. Türkiye alone lost over 420 GWh of wind power, while both Croatia and Greece also reported significant declines. Solar generation remained relatively stable but still saw a decrease of 6%, which heightened the demand for thermal generation throughout the region.
In response to these dynamics, thermal generation saw a substantial increase of 39.2%, reaching 4,835.9 GWh. Gas-fired generation surged by an impressive 66.6%, while coal and lignite outputs increased by 11.1%. This week’s developments indicate that SEE prices are increasingly influenced not just by demand but also by gas dispatch factors. Italy and Türkiye accounted for much of this increase, while Greece and Hungary also leaned more on gas resources. Conversely, Serbia’s thermal generation decreased alongside a sharp drop in gas-fired output but still relied on electricity imports.
Cross-border trade dynamics revealed moderate tightening trends as net imports into SEE fell by 4.6% to 1,036.6 GWh; however, Serbia’s import balance more than doubled during this period while Romania’s net imports skyrocketed by 216%. Greece and Bulgaria enhanced their export capabilities due to robust conventional generation and favorable regional spreads.
Gas market conditions remained somewhat stable yet risk-laden as TTF futures averaged €45.34/MWh without significant week-on-week changes. Nonetheless, the market continues to face vulnerabilities related to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, uncertainties surrounding LNG routing, and sluggish EU storage injections. Current EU gas injection rates are approximately 20% lower than last year’s figures and about 25% below the five-year average, underscoring storage refill risks as a critical factor influencing forward pricing.
This week’s data suggests that the SEE markets are entering a period characterized by increased volatility as summer approaches: weak wind conditions can rapidly elevate prices beyond €100/MWh while gas remains a crucial marginal driver of market dynamics. For generators, this week has brought improved price signals; however, suppliers and industrial buyers are reminded of the importance of hedging strategies as summer cooling demands and gas storage challenges become more pronounced.
