Cross-border electricity trading across Southeast Europe weakened during Week 26 even as regional power demand rose sharply. Net cross-border electricity trade fell by 6.0% to 972 GWh, while electricity consumption increased by 12.7% to 18.41 TWh. Instead of adding imports to cover the higher load, many markets increased domestic generation, particularly from thermal plants.
The change coincided with a 24.7% rise in regional thermal generation, which reached 6.52 TWh. Gas, coal and lignite-fired units boosted output during the period. The higher domestic dispatch reduced reliance on imported electricity in several markets, even as wholesale prices moved higher.
Import volumes shift across key markets during Week 26
Italy remained Southeast Europe’s largest net importer, although its net imports declined by 9.3% to 1.02 TWh. Croatia also cut net imports by 5.5%, despite a significant increase in electricity demand. Consumption rose by 22.9% in Italy and 15.5% in Croatia.
In both Italy and Croatia, much of the additional demand was met through stronger domestic thermal generation rather than increased cross-border purchases. Elsewhere, trading patterns diverged across countries as external supply needs changed.
Divergent net import positions in Greece, Romania, Hungary and Serbia
Greece increased net electricity imports by 54.0%, reaching 254 GWh. Romania and Hungary relied more on external supplies, with net imports rising by 150.9% and 60.7%, respectively. Serbia moved from being a net exporter to a marginal net importer during the week.
Bulgaria maintained its role as a major regional exporter, while Türkiye continued to post stable net export volumes. These differences reflected varying system conditions across the region during the same demand period.
Trading conditions tied to prices and cross-border constraints
The week’s outcomes showed that Southeast Europe did not behave as a single import-dependent market during Week 26. Each country entered the heatwave under different circumstances shaped by generation availability, renewable output, hydro resources and price differentials. Some systems covered higher demand through increased domestic thermal production, while others turned to imports.
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Evolving market conditions also affected cross-border trading opportunities for market participants. Elevated prices in Hungary and Romania contrasted with comparatively lower prices in Bulgaria and Greece, while Italy’s continued import needs and Serbia’s changing position influenced regional strategies.
The potential value of these opportunities remained linked to transmission capacity, network congestion, scheduled power flows and hourly price movements, which weekly averages cannot fully reflect. From a system planning perspective, the decline in regional electricity trade during surging demand highlighted the role of domestic flexibility and dispatchable generation.
When heatwaves affect multiple countries at the same time, cross-border imports cannot always offset widespread supply pressures. Interconnections remain relevant, but their effectiveness depends on surplus generation being available elsewhere in the region during periods of high stress.
The developments of Week 26 indicated that although Southeast Europe’s interconnected market stayed active, cross-border trading alone could not replace the need for strong domestic generation and system resilience during peak-demand periods.
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