Electricity prices across southeastern Europe increased for Monday, October 5, with weekday demand returning alongside lower wind generation. The shift widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €76.14/MWh.
Day-ahead price moves across HUPX, OPCOM and regional exchanges
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead average rose €71.90 to €232.76/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM increased €67.50 to €228.48/MWh, while Albania recorded the largest gain among the markets covered, rising €119.80 to €277.08/MWh.
The increases coincided with a forecast rise in regional electricity consumption to an average 28,706 MW, up 2,758 MW or 10.6% from Sunday. Wind generation was forecast to fall 886 MW to 2,093 MW, while solar output edged down 87 MW to 5,549 MW.
Renewables decline and additional supply needs
Taken together, the demand increase and renewable decline implied roughly 3,731 MW of additional supply requirements from other generation and imports compared with Sunday. The figures indicate a tighter weekday balance, without quantifying how much each element contributed to individual market prices.
Regional net imports increased 532 MW to 1,636 MW. Inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose 296 MW to 1,326 MW.
Germany lower as Hungary premium widens
Germany moved in the opposite direction, with its day-ahead average falling €11.70 to €156.62/MWh. Austria rose €43.20 to €200.33/MWh, swinging Hungary’s spread over Germany from a discount of about €7.40/MWh on Sunday to a substantial premium on Monday.
The change affected the price incentive for deliveries towards Hungary, depending on cross-border capacity as well as hourly prices and transmission costs; daily averages alone do not determine an executable trading margin.
Prices in Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Montenegro
Croatia’s CROPEX increased €59.80 to €219.83/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP gained €58.50 to €217.71/MWh. Both markets remained below Hungary by €12.93/MWh and €15.05/MWh respectively.
Bulgaria’s IBEX rose €56.10 to €203.78/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN climbed €51.60 to €209.92/MWh.
Serbia imports despite discount versus neighbours
Serbia saw a smaller increase, with SEEPEX rising €14.70 to €169.68/MWh. The market was still €63.08/MWh below Hungary and €58.80/MWh below Romania.
Serbia nevertheless recorded average net imports of 862 MW. Romania’s net imports were 1,407 MW, Croatia’s 1,090 MW and Hungary’s 627 MW.
Counterweight flows from Bulgaria and Greece
Bulgaria and Greece provided net export counterweights, with net exports of 1,445 MW and 992 MW respectively.
Greece’s HENEX rose €38.70 to €149.51/MWh and stayed €83.26/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia had the lowest day-ahead average among the markets listed at €145.40/MWh after a €13.70 increase.
The gap between North Macedonia and Albania reached €131.68/MWh.
Forward prices ease while spot remains higher
The spot-market jump was not matched by forward indications in the report: Hungarian week-41 power eased €3.50 to €196/MWh and week 42 fell €4 to €203/MWh.
November remained at €208/MWh, below Monday’s spot average.
Gas and carbon changes stay limited
Austrian CEGH spot gas edged up €0.20 to €75.22/MWh while Greek gas fell €2.30 to €69/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €84.42 per tonne.
{{}} Monday’s main signal was the widening regional power-price gap as imports increased but Hungary’s premium over Germany expanded further alongside the weekday demand rebound.
