For the 25 August 2026 day-ahead session, liquid Central and Eastern European SEE markets clustered around €174-176/MWh, while Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia traded at material discounts. Germany remained far cheaper, and Italy kept a regional premium. The session therefore reflected expensive pricing with increasing segmentation rather than uniform tightness.
HUPX settled at €175.37/MWh, up €5.1/MWh day on day. Romania followed at €174.99/MWh, Bulgaria at €173.75/MWh, Greece at €173.73/MWh, Croatia at €175.08/MWh and Slovenia at €175.67/MWh. Together, the HU-RO-BG-GR-HR-SI cluster stayed within a narrow €1.94/MWh band.
Serbia was the outlier at €157.95/MWh, a discount of €17.42/MWh versus Hungary. Montenegro traded at €164.58/MWh, North Macedonia at €165.53/MWh, and Albania at €170.63/MWh. Germany was quoted at €141.43/MWh, implying a €33.94/MWh HU-DE spread, while Austria was at €177.64/MWh. The Italian headline reference stood at €190.54/MWh.
Demand rises faster than generation, lifting net imports
The key fundamental shift was driven by higher demand covered primarily through imports rather than by a collapse in regional generation. HU+SEE consumption increased from 32,510 MW to 33,505 MW, up 995 MW. Aggregate generation rose by only 327 MW, from 30,421 MW to 30,748 MW.
Net imports therefore increased by the remaining 668 MW, from 2,089 MW to 2,757 MW. Imports from the AT+SK core reached 3,000 MW, up 144 MW. Exports toward Italy fell to 713 MW**, down from 1,187 MW** the previous day.
Tightening in Hungary contrasts with Serbia’s decoupling
Hungary accounted for a large share of the tightening. Hungarian consumption rose by 285 MW**, from 4,369 MW to 4,654 MW**, while domestic generation fell from **3,434 MW** to **3,329 MW**. The resulting net import requirement increased from **935 MW** to **1,325 MW**, a deterioration of **390 MW** in a single session.
Around **28.5%** of Hungarian demand was met through net imports on the day. This aligned with both the **€5.1/MWh** increase in HUPX and the widening premium versus Germany as the **HU-DE spread** expanded to **€33.94/MWh** from roughly **€27/MWh** previously. Flow data showed support entering Hungary from the north, including through Slovakia and Austria, but it did not remove the price gap.
The forward market indicated traders were not treating the premium as only one-day pricing: the **Hungarian Week 36** contract was shown at **€146.50/MWh**, while the **HU-DE Week 36 spread** reached **€28.50/MWh**. The September Hungarian contract stood at **€163/MWh**, with a **€26.50/MWh** premium to Germany, and the **Calendar 2026 spread** remained around **€19.50/MWh**.
Serbia’s daily average masks a deeper intraday split
The most notable trading dislocation involved Serbia as core regional exchanges generally moved higher while SEEPEX fell by **€1.9/MWh** to **€157.95/MWh**. Serbia’s physical balance improved: consumption eased from **3,602 MW** to **3,579 MW**, total generation increased from **3,037 MW** to **3,167 MW**, and net imports fell from **565 MW** to **412 MW**.
Around **153 MW** of Serbia’s previous-day import requirement disappeared based on those figures. However, the daily average did not capture how pronounced the decoupling became across hours: SEEPEX peak prices dropped from **€143.9/MWh** to **€138.2/MWh**, while off-peak prices rose slightly to **€177.7/MWh**.
The minimum hourly price collapsed from **€100** to **€54.1/MWh**, with the low occurring around H12, while the maximum fell from **€240** to **€211/MWh**. The difference between Serbia’s peak average (**€138.2**) and off-peak average (**€177.7**) was therefore about **€39.5/MWh**, reflecting a daytime trough followed by higher evening and overnight prices.
Cross-border flows limit simple arbitrage signals
A cross-border implication also appeared in scheduled flows between Serbia and Hungary despite Serbia trading about **€17/MWh cheaper** on a daily basis than Hungary. Scheduled Serbia-Hungary flow averaged approximately **40 MW toward Serbia**, rather than moving northward toward HUPX pricing; peak flow was around **81 MW from Hungary into Serbia**.
This highlighted that treating the SEEPEX-HUPX base spread as freely arbitrageable may not reflect actual constraints when border allocations and nominations are considered alongside hourly price shapes and incomplete market coupling.
For traders, spread signals remain linked to physical capacity that is scarce or imperfectly available.
HUPX shows an inverted peak/off-peak pattern
A similar intraday shape appeared on HUPX even if less extreme than in Serbia’s case. Hungarian base power settled at €175.4/MWh**, but peak averaged only €159.2 compared with €191.5 for off-peak power. The HUPX minimum was €122.8/MWh around H12 versus a maximum of €225.7/MWh around H19.
The forecast inputs pointed to renewables driving hour-to-hour variation: regional solar output was expected around 7.9 GW**, about 1.27 GW higher day on day, while wind was forecast near 1.94 GW**, down roughly 805 MW. Demand increased by almost 1 GW simultaneously.
This meant midday solar effects could coincide with weaker wind and higher load outside the solar window as prices stayed elevated beyond daytime hours; a base level near €175/MWh could coexist with midday near €123/MWh and evening above €220/MWh.
