Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply at the start of the week, with changes varying by market. HUPX increased by €44.90/MWh to €125.90/MWh, while Slovenia settled at €126.01/MWh. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece traded close to €110–114/MWh, whereas Serbia, Montenegro and Albania remained materially cheaper.
The price spread across borders pointed to renewed fragmentation rather than a single regional shortage. Hungary traded €28.37/MWh above Serbia, €30.66/MWh above Montenegro and €41.62/MWh above Albania. The Hungary-Greece spread reached €15.74/MWh, while Slovenia was almost exactly in line with HUPX.
SEEPEX and national price levels across the Balkans
Serbia’s SEEPEX price increased by €24.90/MWh to €97.53/MWh. Montenegro fell by €6.30/MWh to €95.24/MWh, while Albania declined slightly to a regional minimum of €84.28/MWh. North Macedonia rose to €104.73/MWh.
Romania settled at €114.46/MWh, Bulgaria at €110.26/MWh and Greece at €110.16/MWh. The Bulgaria-Greece spread was only €0.10/MWh. Both markets remained more than €15/MWh below Hungary.
Italy, Germany and Austria set the external reference points
The largest external signal came from Italy, where the national day-ahead average reached €152.11/MWh. Italy traded at a premium of €26.21/MWh to HUPX, €41.85/MWh to Bulgaria, and more than €54/MWh to Serbia. Germany settled at €119.11/MWh, leaving HUPX at a €6.79/MWh premium.
Austria reached €128.93/MWh, only €3.03/MWh above Hungary. This positioned Austria close to HUPX-linked pricing while Italy remained the highest reference point in the region’s cross-border comparison.
Demand rebound supported by higher solar and wind output
Forecast regional consumption increased by 3,957 MW (about 14.3%) to an average of 31,616 MW. Net imports fell by 832 MW to 959 MW. Solar and wind output improved enough to offset the demand increase without raising aggregate import needs.
Cross-border flows and country-level balances reshape availability signals
The forecast solar increase was 2,598 MW to 7,894 MW, while wind rose by 1,089 MW to 2,168 MW. Combined solar and wind reached 10,062 MW**, up 3,687 MW< / strong>. Renewable growth covered approximately 93% of the demand increase between Sunday and Monday.
Solar alone represented around 25% of average regional consumption, while combined solar and wind accounted for almost 32%. Net imports covered about 3% of consumption versus approximately 6.5% on Sunday, leaving implied domestic generation requirement near 30.66 GW.
Northern balance tighter for Hungary as imports decline into SEE area
The region could accommodate a nearly 4 GW increase in consumption without additional aggregate imports< / strong>. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-Slovenia and wider SEE area declined by 905 MW to 2,027 MW< / strong>. At the same time, flows toward Italy remained around 1,181 MW< / strong>.
This left Hungary exposed to a tighter northern and central European balance while lower-priced generation was concentrated further south and east. Country-level balances showed Hungary as a net importer of approximately 1,042 MW< / strong>, alongside Croatia importing 839 MW, Serbia 445 MW and Romania 314 MW.
Bulgaria exports into Romania, Serbia and Greece; Serbia’s price remains discounted
Bulgaria was the principal regional exporter at approximately 1,275 MW< / strong>, while Greece exported around 380 MW. Seven-day commercial-flow averages indicated Bulgarian deliveries of about 475 MW to Romania, 269 MW to Serbia and 335 MW to Greece during baseload hours.
Bulgaria’s exports to Greece fell to around 80 MW during peak hours< / strong>, indicating tighter conditions as evening demand increases in the southern market. Serbia’s average flows included deliveries from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary and North Macedonia, particularly during peak hours.
Croatia relies on imports; hourly curves show midday compression then evening spikes
Croatia’s net-import requirement was supported by flows from Hungary and Slovenia: seven-day averages showed Hungary-to-Croatia deliveries of about 571 MW in baseload and 709 MW in peakload, alongside Slovenia-to-Croatia flows around 550 MW and 503 MW respectively. Croatia still settled at €119.72/MWh< / strong>, below both Hungary and Slovenia.
The hourly pattern showed a two-part trading day in Hungary: prices stayed around or above €120/MWh during early hours, strengthened through the morning ramp, then fell toward approximately €65–75/MWh during the solar-intensive midday window before accelerating above €150/MWh with an evening peak approaching €180/MWh.
Midsession floors stay positive; intraday spreads support flexibility
Romania and Slovenia displayed broadly similar hourly shapes, while Greece saw deeper late-morning compression followed by an afternoon recovery. Unlike Sunday when several markets recorded zero or near-zero prices during the solar window, Monday’s higher industrial and commercial demand kept midday floors positive.
The midday trough-to-evening peak spread was close to or above €100/MWh in several markets, supporting trading strategies focused on intraday shape management rather than cross-market baseload positions. This aligned with battery storage needs for shifting energy into evening ramps along with flexible hydro output adjustments and demand response activity.
No parallel rise in gas or carbon; forward power softens
The day-ahead increase was not matched by higher fuel or carbon prices: Austrian CEGH gas was unchanged at €49.72/MWh, Greek gas declined to €43.55/MWh and EU carbon allowances remained near €79.20/tCO₂. Average 2026 gas forwards fell by €1/MWh to €50/MWh while 2026 coal declined by €4.50/t to €114/t.
Hungarian forward electricity also softened< / strong>: Week 29 fell by €6/MWh to €131/MWh and Week 30 declined by €4.50/MWh to €128/MWh, while the average 2026 contract eased to €131.50/MWh.
Borders constrain how neighbouring costs feed into SEEPEX pricing
The Hungarian premium versus Germany narrowed to €13/MWh for Week 29 and €21.50/MWh for Week 30 as forward signals weakened alongside day-ahead repricing across multiple markets. For Serbia and Montenegro, SEEPEX remained discounted relative to neighbouring markets despite surrounding import costs.
SEEPEX stayed €12.63/MWh below Bulgaria< / strong >and €28.37/Mwh below Hungary< / strong >while interconnection capacity availability, border nominations and commercial-flow configuration limited full pass-through of import costs into Serbian pricing.
