Hungarian day-ahead electricity prices for Monday delivery rose sharply as weekday demand recovered and wind generation declined, widening price differentials between Central Europe and the southern Balkans. The HUPX baseload price increased by €88.80/MWh from Sunday to €250.97/MWh, the highest level in Southeast Europe. It also traded only €5.58/MWh below Germany’s €256.55/MWh.
Slovenia and Croatia settled close to the Central European cluster, at €246.31/MWh and €245.36/MWh, respectively. Austria traded at €246.98/MWh, while Romania was slightly lower at €237.61/MWh. The regional move coincided with a forecast shift in supply and demand conditions.
Regional balance tightens on higher demand and lower wind
Consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast to rise by 3.64 GW to 29.69 GW as markets returned from the weekend. At the same time, wind generation was expected to fall by 1.13 GW to 2.04 GW. Forecast solar output increased by 778 MW to 5.95 GW, but the additional midday generation was not enough to offset stronger demand and weaker wind conditions, particularly after sunset.
The highest pricing pressure concentrated in the evening hours, with HUPX reaching €619.70/MWh in hour 20 against a daily minimum of €161.70/MWh. Germany peaked at €697.30/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia reached almost €600/MWh. Romania recorded an evening maximum of €615.80/MWh, indicating that the scarcity period extended into the northern part of the region.
Northern and southern price zones widen across borders
A divergence in pricing separated the market into three broad bands based on day-ahead levels across countries. Germany, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia traded above €245/MWh, while Italy and Romania were between €226/MWh and €238/MWh. Most of the southern Balkans were in a lower range of €180/MWh to €205/MWh.
The spread reflected cross-border constraints, with lower-priced generation in the Balkans unable to move in sufficient volumes toward Hungary and northern Adriatic markets to remove differences. Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price rose by €76.70/MWh to €199.44/MWh, leaving it €51.53/MWh below Hungary’s HUPX level. Albania traded at €204.75/MWh, Bulgaria at €193.13/MWh, and Greece at €186.76/MWh.
Southeast Europe flows: Romania transit and Serbia exports toward Hungary
The cross-border pattern showed Romania acting as a transit market between cheaper Bulgarian supply and tighter conditions in Hungary. Romania exported an average of 1.62 GW to Hungary, rising to 2.25 GW during peak hours, while importing around 1.82 GW from Bulgaria at the same time. Serbia also shifted exports toward Hungary, averaging 233 MW over the day and reaching 369 MW during peak hours.
The available capacity did not close the more than €50/MWh;* SEEPEX-HUPX spread, according to the figures cited for Monday pricing differences between Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload and Hungary’s HUPX baseload levels.
*Note: The original spread figure is described as “more than €50/MWh” in the source facts provided.
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Northern Balkans supply changes alongside fuel and carbon costs
Balkan system forecasts pointed to higher Serbian demand alongside stronger generation recovery, reducing net imports compared with Sunday levels. Serbian consumption was forecast at 3.33 GW, up by around 329 MW, while generation increased by about 819 MW to 3.05 GW. Net imports fell to 276 MW, from 766 MW.
The Serbian dispatch mix included continued imports from Bulgaria and North Macedonia while exporting north toward Hungary, with its peakload price reaching €214.10/MWh. The off-peak average was cited at €184.80/MWh, reflecting higher value for flexible capacity during the evening ramp.
Mediterranean interconnector flows and forward curve moves in Hungary
Montenegro remained a net importer of 47 MW , with consumption of 361 MW and domestic generation of 314 MW on Monday delivery forecasts cited in the data set provided. No scheduled commercial flow was recorded through the Montenegro–Italy interconnector despite an Italian national price of €225.85/MWh, nearly €46/MWh above Montenegro’s level.
Albania reduced net imports to 272 MW , down from 554 MW as domestic generation more than doubled to 566 MW, although its day-ahead price still rose by €58/MWh.
Gas prices, carbon allowances, and Hungarian forward declines support spot volatility
Austrian CEGH gas edged up to €81.95/MWh while Greek gas remained at €63/MWh, supporting elevated power pricing conditions across the region cited in the input facts provided. EU carbon allowances were reported at €85.52/tonne, keeping costs for gas- and coal-fired generation elevated.
Hungarian forward prices declined , with Week 38 falling by €4/MWh to €179/MWh, Week 39 dropping to €184.50/MWh, and October easing to €196/MWh. The October Hungarian premium stood at €33/MWh over Germany’s level cited for Monday delivery pricing.
The forward decline indicated that traders treated Monday’s spot surge as a short-term combination of lower wind output, recovering demand, and evening scarcity conditions rather than a sustained repricing across longer tenors.
Electricity availability diverged , with prices below €200/MWh across much of the southern Balkans while Hungary approached €251/MWh for Monday delivery—an implied gap tied to securing scarce cross-border capacity.
