Recent data indicates a significant shift in the energy landscape of Southeast Europe (SEE), as thermal power generation experienced a notable decline during calendar week 13. The reduction is primarily attributed to a marked decrease in gas-fired generation, which fell by 12.78%, while renewable and hydroelectric sources gained traction, thereby reducing the marginal dispatch of gas plants.
The overall thermal generation across the region decreased by 7.24%. Italy faced the steepest drop, with thermal output plunging by 24.75%, largely due to a more than 26% reduction in gas-fired generation. Hungary followed closely with a decrease of 24.58%, and Serbia reported an alarming contraction of 48.71%, primarily driven by diminished lignite generation.
This decline in gas-fired output is particularly significant given its historical role as the marginal price-setting fuel across most SEE markets. As renewable and hydro generation capacity expands, gas plants are increasingly sidelined from the merit order, resulting in lower overall thermal generation levels.
Despite the downturn in gas generation, coal and lignite production remained relatively stable, with only a slight decline of 0.66%. This stability suggests that these fossil fuel sources continue to play an essential role in maintaining base supply levels, especially in regions rich in domestic coal resources.
<pInterestingly, some markets exhibited growth in thermal generation. Bulgaria and Türkiye reported increases, with Türkiye particularly noting robust growth in both coal and gas output, aligning with a surge in electricity demand within the country.
<pThe current dynamics highlight the transitional phase of power systems within Southeast Europe. While renewables are progressively displacing gas-fired generation during certain periods, thermal sources—especially coal—continue to be integral to the energy mix.
<pFrom a market perspective, the reduction in gas-fired output has contributed to modest price declines observed throughout the week. Nonetheless, gas remains pivotal as the marginal fuel during peak demand periods, retaining its influential role in price formation across the region.
