In the second week of January 2026, Southeast Europe (SEE) experienced a significant surge in electricity prices, with most markets reporting increases exceeding 40%. Average prices in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Serbia rose to approximately €130–136/MWh. This sharp escalation reflects a combination of strong market coupling and limited availability of lower-cost cross-border imports. The regional average price climbed from €89.73/MWh in Week 01 to €111.36/MWh in Week 02, marking a notable week-on-week increase of 24.1%.
Daily prices consistently exceeded €100/MWh across nearly all SEE markets, with the exception of Greece and Türkiye. The highest weekly increases were recorded in Hungary and Croatia at 47.10% and 46.40%, respectively, followed closely by Romania at 44.47% and Bulgaria at 41.39%. In contrast, Italy saw a more modest rise of 10.71%, while Greece was the only market to report a decline in prices due to improved system balance driven by higher renewable output.
Demand for electricity in SEE surged significantly during this period, escalating from 16,332.11 GWh in Week 01 to 18,684.18 GWh, an increase of 14.4%. The rise was largely attributed to severe weather conditions, including heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures that heightened heating needs. Italy recorded the highest increase at 34.02%, translating to an additional 1,591.98 GWh consumed.
Variable renewable energy generation also saw a substantial uptick, increasing from 3,368.9 GWh to 3,869.1 GWh week-on-week—an increase of 14.8%. This growth was primarily driven by higher wind output across the region, although solar generation declined due to increased cloud cover and shorter daylight hours. Türkiye emerged as the leading contributor to this rise, producing over half of SEE’s total variable renewable output.
Hydropower generation experienced a remarkable boost of 26.8%, reaching 1,819.27 GWh as hydrological conditions improved significantly. Gains were particularly pronounced in Croatia (+576%), Greece (+205%), and Serbia (+202%). However, Romania reported a decline of -11.2% in hydropower generation.
Thermal generation across SEE rose by 9.2% week-on-week, totaling 9,171.05 GWh despite a decrease in lignite and coal output. This increase was driven entirely by gas-fired generation, which surged by 19% from 4,788.92 GWh to 5,696.02 GWh. Country-specific developments varied: Italy saw the largest absolute increase in thermal generation due to higher gas output amid rising demand.
Cross-border electricity flows within SEE fell sharply during this period, with net imports decreasing by -34.53% to just 813.52 GWh. Greece notably increased its net exports significantly due to reduced domestic demand and thermal generation constraints.
The overall implications of these developments indicate a tightening market dynamic characterized by rising prices and fluctuating demand patterns influenced by weather conditions and renewable energy contributions across the region.
