In the second week of January 2026, TTF gas prices in Europe displayed modest fluctuations, with a weekly average settling at €28.06/MWh, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.7% from the previous week. The highest price recorded during this period was €28.778/MWh on January 7, following a notable drop to €27.399/MWh at the start of the week on January 5, which was 3.2% lower than the closing price on December 29.
The onset of early January brought significant cold weather across Northwest and Central Europe, leading to increased heating demand for natural gas. This surge in consumption resulted in accelerated withdrawals from storage facilities, leaving EU gas inventories at approximately 54.9%, a considerable decline from last year’s figure of 66.9% for the same period.
Geopolitical developments have further complicated the gas market landscape. Reports indicate that the United States is contemplating military and cyber actions against Iran, raising alarms over potential disruptions to global LNG supplies. This situation is particularly critical for Europe, which has increasingly depended on LNG imports following a drastic reduction in Russian pipeline gas deliveries. In fact, 2025 marked a pivotal year when LNG imports to Europe surpassed those via pipelines for the first time.
As of mid-January, the one-month forward TTF contract was priced at €32.320/MWh. Notably, Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal exported approximately €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion) worth of LNG to Europe in 2025, as reported by German NGO Urgewald on January 8, 2026. This report follows the EU’s decision in December 2025 to phase out Russian gas imports by January 1, 2028, with a complete ban on LNG imports slated for early 2027.
Despite these impending restrictions, the EU remains the largest importer of Russian LNG, with Yamal LNG contributing nearly 15% to total EU LNG imports. France emerged as the primary recipient of these shipments, receiving 87 tanker deliveries totaling 6.3 million tonnes (Mt), which accounted for 41.7% of Yamal LNG exports to Europe. TotalEnergies holds a significant stake in Yamal LNG and continues to purchase around 4 Mt annually under contracts extending until 2041.
The operational dynamics of Yamal LNG are heavily reliant on access to EU ports and specialized ice-breaking Arc7 LNG tankers designed for Arctic conditions. Without these logistical advantages, shipments would face significantly longer routes to Asian markets. In 2025 alone, Belgium received 4.2 Mt of LNG through 58 ships, while China received 3.6 Mt via 51 vessels. France’s Dunkirk and Montoir terminals solidified their position by handling a total of 6.3 Mt from Yamal LNG.
Shipping logistics for Yamal LNG are primarily managed by two European companies: Seapeak and Dynagas. Seapeak transported about 37.3% of Yamal’s exports, while Dynagas handled approximately 34.3%. Together, they operate a fleet of specialized Arc7 ice-breaking tankers essential for maintaining efficient supply chains to meet European demand.
