In Croatia, the day-ahead average fell by 7.3% to €92.02/MWh in Week 24. The level left Croatia broadly aligned with Greece at €91.53/MWh and Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh. The market sat within the regional mid-price range.
Electricity demand rose by 3.9% to 311.46 GWh, reflecting the seasonal move toward higher summer consumption across Southeast Europe. While demand increased, the supply mix changed in a way that diverged from neighbouring systems, particularly on the renewables side.
Renewables output contracts on weaker wind conditions
Variable renewable generation declined by 35.9%, making Croatia the only analysed market to show a significant contraction in wind and solar production. The drop was linked primarily to weaker wind conditions, which reduced the contribution of low-cost renewable supply during the week.
The reduction in variable renewables was balanced by a rise in hydropower generation. Croatian hydro output increased by 43.5%, equivalent to 10.1 GWh, supporting a pronounced recovery compared with other regional patterns.
Hydropower recovery changes balancing compared with regional peers
The stronger hydropower response altered Croatia’s balancing structure relative to countries including Serbia, Bulgaria, and Türkiye. In those markets, hydro output weakened while thermal generation took on a larger share of system adjustment.
Croatia’s external position also improved slightly during the same period. Net electricity imports decreased by 8.9%, indicating lower reliance on cross-border supply despite weaker renewable wind conditions.
LNG inflows remain steady as import needs ease
LNG inflows were broadly stable at 640.83 GWh, falling by only 0.7%. This pointed to no major change in Croatia’s gas supply balance over the week.
The Week 24 data also highlighted how hydrological variability fed into price formation in Croatia. Compared with a broader regional narrative tied to wind and solar output, Croatia’s wholesale price movement tracked more closely with hydro availability than with renewables.
For market participants, the week showed that pricing can shift quickly based on hydrology, wind conditions, and cross-border flows. Even when renewable output is weak, stronger hydro conditions supported system stability and helped keep wholesale prices lower.
