Natural gas prices in Bulgaria are expected to stay largely unchanged in June, even as European spot prices rise amid geopolitical uncertainty and tighter supply conditions. A pricing proposal submitted by Bulgargaz to the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (KEVR) sets the regulated gas price for next month at €35.62/MWh, slightly below May levels. European spot gas prices have increased to around €46/MWh.
Bulgaria’s June supply sources include Azerbaijani gas and LNG via Turkey
Bulgaria’s supply mix for June is set to include contracted Azerbaijani gas. It will also rely on LNG deliveries arriving through Turkish terminals operated by BOTAŞ. Bulgargaz has secured an agreement with Shell for an LNG cargo intended for both summer consumption and injections into the country’s Chiren underground gas storage facility.
Scheduled maintenance at the Alexandroupoli LNG terminal will keep it closed until 1 July. As a result, the Shell cargo will be rerouted through Turkey.
Azerbaijani pricing linked to oil derivatives with a nine-month lag
A long-term supply agreement with Azerbaijan has supported comparatively lower gas prices in Bulgaria in recent months. The pricing formula is updated quarterly and tied to oil derivative prices with a delay of around nine months. Earlier this year, Bulgargaz management warned that higher global oil prices recorded in March and April are expected to affect Azerbaijani gas pricing starting in July.
The warning cited Brent crude briefly exceeding $120 per barrel and averaging above $100 during that period.
Storage refill season pressures Bulgaria ahead of winter requirements
Bulgaria and the wider European market face a challenging gas storage refill season. European countries significantly depleted reserves during winter while expecting lower LNG prices later in the year. Disruptions tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, including concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and reported attacks on gas infrastructure in Qatar, have complicated those expectations.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data show EU gas storage facilities at about 39% full, which is low for this stage compared with recent years. KEVR has noted that Bulgargaz already has contracts and schedules for injections into the Chiren storage facility. Under EU rules, member states are required to fill storage sites to 90% capacity ahead of the winter heating season.
Bulgaria’s Chiren underground gas storage is currently only 22.6% full, indicating the urgency of upcoming injection efforts.
