Azerbaijan is withholding a final investment decision on expanding the Southern Gas Corridor until European buyers provide firmer long-term purchase commitments and financing becomes clearer. The decision is linked to how demand signals develop in the EU market.
EU import target and current delivery levels
The proposed expansion is intended to support an EU target of importing at least 20 billion cubic metres annually by 2027. Deliveries reached about 11.3 billion cubic metres in 2025. This compares with about 8.1 billion cubic metres in 2021, which remains below the stated objective.
Capacity options for TANAP, TAP and the South Caucasus Pipeline
One set of options involves increasing TANAP capacity from 16.2 billion cubic metres to 31.7 billion cubic metres annually. TAP could be expanded from 10.5 billion cubic metres to 23.3 billion cubic metres. The South Caucasus Pipeline could also rise from 24 billion cubic metres to 33.6 billion cubic metres.
Timeline and commercial commitments for a full build-out
A full expansion is estimated to require about five years. That timeline makes the timing of commercial commitments critical for project progression.
Route through Georgia, Turkey and entry points in Europe
The corridor supplies Europe via Georgia and Turkey, with gas entering Greece, Albania and Italy. Additional deliveries can extend to Bulgaria and neighbouring markets through the Greece–Bulgaria interconnector. For European buyers, securing more Azerbaijani gas now depends on accepting longer contractual commitments while the bloc pursues lower fossil-fuel consumption.
