Hungary and Serbia recorded day-ahead electricity prices above €260/MWh on Thursday, as higher demand and a widening regional supply deficit increased import dependence across Southeast Europe. Prices moved lower in Greece, Albania, Montenegro and much of the western Balkans. The divergence across regional day-ahead electricity markets pointed to physical power balances and cross-border constraints as the main drivers of the day’s trading.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price climbed €10.8 to €263.21/MWh, the highest among the markets covered. Serbia’s SEEPEX rose €49.2 to €260.63/MWh, leaving it just €2.58/MWh below HUPX and nearly erasing the Serbia-Hungary discount.
Prices also remained elevated in Romania, where OPCOM reached €251.53/MWh, and Bulgaria, where IBEX stood at €250.17/MWh. The respective increases were €5.4 and €5.0. North Macedonia settled at €249.48/MWh, while Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia traded at roughly €229-€239/MWh.
Greece moved against the regional trend, with HENEX down €39.3 to €201.29/MWh, creating a €61.92/MWh discount to Hungary. Germany’s price fell more sharply, to €148.61/MWh, putting Hungary at a €114.60/MWh premium to the German market.
Imports increase as regional demand outpaces generation
Combined electricity consumption in Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast at 32,624 MW, up 1,256 MW, or about 4%, from Wednesday. Regional net imports rose by 1,296 MW to 4,713 MW, covering roughly 14% of total consumption.
Flows from the Austrian-Slovak core into Hungary and Southeast Europe increased by 964 MW to 4,410 MW. Imports from Italy into the region also rose, by 283 MW to 383 MW.
Renewable output forecasts shifted in opposite directions: solar generation was expected to fall by 571 MW to 3,735 MW, while wind generation increased by 409 MW to 3,100 MW. Total regional generation remained broadly stable at around 27.9 GW, against demand above 32.6 GW, leaving the system increasingly reliant on external supply.
The previous day’s generation mix had already depended heavily on coal and gas, while hydro output had declined by more than 600 MW. Higher demand, lower solar availability and limited additional domestic generation helped lift prices in northern and central Balkan markets even as German prices dropped.
The regional pattern also showed that lower-priced electricity can be available nearby without being able to flow freely across borders. Insufficient transmission capacity limits price convergence between markets.
Hungary faces the greatest supply pressure
Hungary remained at the centre of the regional imbalance. Consumption rose to 5,235 MW, while domestic generation was only around 2,536 MW, leaving average net imports at approximately 2,699 MW. Imports therefore covered more than half of Hungarian electricity demand.
Hungary drew substantial volumes from Austria and Slovakia while also supplying several neighbouring Southeast European markets. Average commercial flows included about 1,307 MW from Austria into Hungary and 1,822 MW from Slovakia into Hungary.
At the same time, Hungary exported around 614 MW to Romania and 526 MW to Croatia. Serbia also supplied the Hungarian market, with average flows from Serbia to Hungary of about 642 MW.
The Hungary-Germany price spread widened to €114.60/MWh despite the large imports from Central Europe. Available interconnection capacity was being heavily used but was not sufficient to eliminate the scarcity premium in Hungary and neighbouring markets. Germany’s day-ahead price fell by more than €63/MWh while Hungary’s rose, indicating congestion.
Serbian prices rebound as cross-border flows rise
SEEPEX climbed from €211.4/MWh to €260.63/MWh, an increase of more than 23%. Serbian peak power averaged €281.9/MWh, compared with €239.4/MWh off-peak, and the maximum hourly price reached €343.4/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer despite relatively strong domestic generation. Forecast consumption was about 3,928 MW, against generation of approximately 3,220 MW, leaving a net deficit close to 708 MW.
Cross-border flows made Serbia’s trading position more complex. Power entered the country from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro, while significant volumes moved north into Hungary.
Average commercial exports from Serbia to Hungary reached about 642 MW. Bulgaria supplied Serbia with roughly 338 MW and Bosnia with around 345 MW. Serbia was therefore both a deficit market and a transit route linking lower-priced Balkan supply with the Hungarian premium.
Greek surplus lowers prices as exports increase
Greece provided the clearest counterweight to tight conditions in Hungary. Consumption was broadly unchanged at about 5,282 MW, while forecast generation of around 6,441 MW left the country with approximately 1,159 MW of net exports.
The surplus brought HENEX baseload down to €201.29/MWh. Hourly prices ranged from a low of just €1/MWh to a high of €290/MWh.
The very low afternoon price was consistent with a strong solar-driven midday surplus, followed by tighter conditions in the evening. The Greek-Hungarian price difference consequently widened to almost €62/MWh.
That spread represented substantial theoretical arbitrage value, but its persistence showed that transmission constraints across the Balkans continued to limit the amount of cheaper southern electricity reaching higher-priced Central European markets.
Montenegro and western Balkan prices ease
Montenegro’s BELEN price fell €15.3 to €238.93/MWh, more than €24/MWh below Hungary. Peak prices averaged €258.5/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €219.3/MWh.
Montenegro’s power system was close to balance, with consumption of around 340 MW, generation near 311 MW and net imports of only about 28 MW. The country continued to serve as a cross-border transit route, with average flows towards Serbia of around 174 MW.
Flows on the Montenegro-Italy link were predominantly towards Montenegro during the day. Croatia’s price fell to €234.06/MWh and Slovenia’s to €228.63/MWh, while Albania recorded one of the day’s largest drops, down €51.6 to €233.99/MWh.
The western Balkan group therefore traded substantially below Serbia and Hungary, despite continued import dependence in several individual systems.
Fuel prices do not match the electricity price surge
The rise in electricity prices was not accompanied by a comparable increase in spot gas. Austrian CEGH gas fell €1.2 to €89.63/MWh, while the Greek gas indicator dropped €4.6 to €79.19/MWh.
EU carbon allowances edged up just €0.3 to €85.91/tonne. The divergence supported the view that Thursday’s electricity-market move was primarily driven by power-system conditions, including demand, renewable output, generation availability and transmission congestion, rather than a sudden increase in marginal fuel costs.
Forward electricity markets continued to reflect tight conditions in Hungary. Hungarian Week 44 and Week 45 power were both quoted at around €263/MWh, while November rose €6 to €250/MWh.
The Hungarian calendar contract increased to €170.50/MWh. These prices offered little indication that the regional premium was expected to disappear immediately.
Price separation highlights transmission constraints
The October 22 session was marked by a widening geographic gap between electricity prices. Germany was below €150/MWh, Greece was around €201/MWh and Italy around €225/MWh, while Hungary and Serbia were near €260/MWh.
At the same time, imports from Central Europe into Hungary and Southeast Europe were already above 4.4 GW. For traders, generators and storage operators, the combination increased the value of flexibility and cross-border capacity.
Batteries, dispatchable generation, hydro flexibility and transmission rights become more valuable when neighbouring markets differ by €50-€115/MWh during the same delivery day. The common ADEX intraday continuous trading environment for Slovenia, Hungary and Serbia launched this week, with the aim of improving operational trading and short-term balancing between the three markets.
Improved trading infrastructure cannot by itself remove physical grid constraints. The October 22 market showed that greater integration makes price signals more visible while also exposing the limited transmission capacity available to arbitrage them. Until additional interconnection, storage and flexible generation are available, periods of high regional demand are likely to continue producing large, commercially important spreads between Central Europe and the Balkans.
