In the second week of January, Brent front-month futures maintained a steady position above $60 per barrel, only dipping to a low of $59.96 on January 7. By January 9, prices surged to a weekly high of $63.34 per barrel, marking a 4.3% increase from the previous week and reaching levels not seen since early December 2025.
This price resilience was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly uncertainties surrounding Venezuela’s oil supply, the introduction of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil buyers, and fears that instability in Iran could impact future oil availability. Notably, Venezuela’s announcement to deliver between 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. briefly contributed to the price decline on January 7.
In the gas market, TTF front-month futures experienced a sharp decline at the week’s outset, falling by 5.5% compared to the previous Friday, hitting a low of €27.40 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on January 5. However, prices rebounded slightly, reaching €28.78/MWh on January 7 before settling at €28.13/MWh by January 9, which was a 3.0% decrease from the prior week.
Concerns regarding liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply security and European storage levels—currently below 55%—contributed upward pressure on gas prices. Nevertheless, forecasts predicting milder weather conditions in the near term helped temper price increases, preventing them from exceeding €29/MWh.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 contracts in the EEX market exhibited a notable upward trend. Starting at a weekly low of €87.25 per tonne on January 5, prices climbed consistently throughout the week, reaching €89.56 per tonne by January 9. This represented a 1.4% increase from the previous week and marked the highest price level since late December 2023.
The dynamics observed in both oil and gas markets underscore the intricate interplay between geopolitical factors and market responses in Southeast Europe and beyond. As tensions persist and weather patterns evolve, stakeholders must remain vigilant regarding their potential impacts on pricing and supply stability across energy sectors.
