In early January 2026, electricity prices surged across most major European markets, particularly during the first week of the month. Weekly average prices rose significantly, with the exception of the Iberian MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal, which experienced an 11% decline. The Nordic Nord Pool market saw the most substantial increase, climbing by 63%. Other markets tracked by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting also reported price rises, ranging from 11% in Italy’s IPEX market to a notable 52% increase in Germany’s EPEX SPOT market.
By January 5, weekly average prices surpassed €100/MWh in nearly all European markets, except for Spain and Portugal, which recorded averages of €78.47/MWh and €78.56/MWh, respectively. Italy led with the highest weekly average price at €119.39/MWh, while France and Germany followed with averages of €101.14/MWh and €112.48/MWh, respectively.
The MIBEL market consistently posted the lowest daily prices in Europe throughout the week. On January 9, Spain achieved the lowest daily average price at €53.40/MWh, closely trailed by Portugal at €53.43/MWh. In contrast, daily prices in other markets remained above €70/MWh, with Italy maintaining daily prices above €105/MWh for the entire week.
Germany recorded the highest daily average price of the week on January 8, peaking at €154.12/MWh. Other countries such as Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, and the Netherlands also reached their weekly highs on that day, all exceeding €125/MWh. The British N2EX market hit €139.74/MWh, marking its highest level since February 18, 2025. France and Nordic markets saw their peaks on January 5, with France reaching €128.21/MWh—its highest price since February 19, 2025.
The surge in prices was attributed to a combination of factors including increased CO₂ emissions allowance costs and heightened electricity demand. Additionally, lower wind generation in Germany and declining solar output in Germany, France, and Italy contributed to tighter supply conditions that pushed prices higher. Conversely, increased wind and solar production in the Iberian Peninsula helped maintain lower prices in Spain and Portugal.
Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates a potential decline in prices across most European markets during the third week of January due to expected increases in wind production in Germany and reduced demand in certain regions. However, diminishing solar output in Spain and Italy alongside lower wind generation in the Iberian Peninsula may create upward pressure on prices within those markets.
