European energy commodity markets moved in different directions in early July, with Brent prices remaining comparatively stable while TTF gas and European carbon allowances increased. Brent front-month futures on the ICE market posted a weekly settlement high of $73.15/bbl on Monday, 29 June, before dropping to a low of $71.57/bbl on Wednesday, 1 July. The lowest settlement level for Brent since 27 February was recorded during that trough.
By Friday, 3 July, the Brent front-month contract closed at $72.12/bbl. The settlement price was almost unchanged versus the previous Friday, rising by only 0.2%. This reflected continued stability in the oil market despite uncertainty.
Brent steadies as Middle East risk premium eases
The relatively flat performance of Brent futures was linked to improving conditions around the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping activity continued to normalise after earlier disruptions in the region. At the same time, progress in discussions between the United States and Iran supported expectations of lower geopolitical risk. That development reduced the additional risk premium that had supported oil prices in previous weeks.
TTF gas rises on storage needs and power demand
European natural gas markets moved higher during the first week of July, with TTF futures increasing throughout the period. Front-month TTF gas contracts traded on ICE rose from €42.57/MWh on Monday, 29 June, to a weekly peak of €45.22/MWh on Friday, 3 July. The final settlement was 11% above the previous Friday’s level.
The rise in TTF prices was mainly attributed to seasonal storage requirements ahead of winter. Market participants continued focusing on rebuilding gas inventories while stronger demand from the power sector in some countries added support. High temperatures combined with lower solar photovoltaic generation increased reliance on gas-fired electricity production.
EUA carbon allowance prices track higher gas values
European carbon allowance prices also increased over the week, with December 2026 EUA futures trading on EEX reaching a weekly low of €78.79/t on Monday, 29 June. After settling above €80/t during the final session of June, carbon prices stayed close to €79.50/t during the first two trading days of July.
By Friday, 3 July, EUA futures reached a weekly maximum of €80.59/t. That level represented a 0.4% increase compared with the previous Friday. The recovery followed the strengthening trend in TTF gas futures, reflecting the link between European gas prices and emissions allowance markets.
