Weekly average electricity prices declined across most major European markets during the first week of July, following strong increases in the previous week. The earlier rise was associated with a heatwave that lifted demand and wholesale prices. The subsequent fall coincided with lower consumption, stronger wind power output and changing weather conditions, easing pressure on European power systems.
Largest weekly declines recorded in France, Spain and Portugal
France posted the steepest weekly decline, with average prices down by 32%. Spain and Portugal followed with decreases of around 28%. Germany, Belgium, the Nordic market and the Netherlands recorded weekly drops between 21% and 24%, while the British market fell by approximately 20%.
Italy recorded the smallest weekly decrease among the analysed markets, with prices down by 6.8%. Despite that correction, Italy remained the highest-priced market in Europe for the first week of July. Its average price reached €134.85/MWh.
Nordic lowest prices; France to Belgium span wider range
The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average at €52.91/MWh. Spain and Portugal maintained relatively low levels, averaging €63.20/MWh and €63.21/MWh, respectively. Across other analysed markets, weekly averages ranged from €78.60/MWh in France to €112.08/MWh in Belgium.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting expects a change in direction in the second week of July, with prices forecast to increase in most European markets. The expected rise is linked to higher electricity demand and lower wind generation forecasts. Natural gas price developments are also expected to continue influencing wholesale electricity market trends across Europe, AleaSoft reports .
Daily volatility persists; Belgian and Dutch spike on 30 June
Daily pricing remained volatile across European electricity markets during the first week of July. France, Spain, Portugal and the Nordic region saw multiple sessions with daily prices below €50/MWh. The lowest daily average of the week occurred in the Nordic market on Sunday, 5 July, when prices fell to €26.95/MWh.
Even with an overall downward trend, several markets experienced elevated prices early in the week. Daily prices exceeded €100/MWh in most analysed markets, while Spain, Portugal and the Nordic region stayed below that threshold. The largest surge came on Tuesday, 30 June, when Belgian and Dutch prices exceeded €200/MWh, with Belgium reaching a peak daily average of €210.96/MWh.
Wind strength supports decline; weaker solar limits correction
The move lower was driven by reduced electricity demand after the heatwave and stronger wind generation across Europe. Higher wind output increased renewable electricity availability and reduced reliance on more expensive thermal generation. At the same time, weaker solar photovoltaic production constrained downward pressure on prices.
Solar PV weakness was reported for Germany, France, Spain and Italy, limiting how far some markets could correct during the week . Italy and Belgium remained among Europe’s most expensive markets after the weekly decline, while the Nordic market continued to record the lowest prices due to its traditional market structure and strong hydroelectric generation base.
Regional differences reflect generation mix and cross-border conditions
The spread between regional price levels reflected variations in generation mixes, renewable availability and cross-border market conditions. Italy’s position as the highest-priced market persisted through the first week of July despite its smaller weekly drop. In contrast, the Nordic market maintained consistently lower pricing throughout the same period.
