Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis points to a structural shift in Southeast Europe’s electricity market. It says strong renewable growth is no longer sufficient by itself to push wholesale electricity prices lower. The report notes that wind and solar generation increased across most of the region, while wholesale prices still rose .
Renewable generation changes across analysed markets
Renewable generation posted month-on-month gains in nearly every analysed market. Bulgaria recorded the largest increase at 34.19%, followed by Romania at 26.57%, Greece at 15.88%, Hungary at 9.56%, Italy at 9.22%, Serbia at 2.90%, and Croatia at 0.13%. Türkiye was the only market with a decline, with renewable output down 6.70% .
Despite the overall expansion in renewable generation, electricity prices moved higher across most interconnected Southeast European markets. The analysis links the price direction to conditions beyond generation volumes alone. It highlights that monthly market outcomes did not follow the pattern implied by earlier assumptions about renewables lowering prices.
Day-ahead price movements in May 2026
Romania’s average day-ahead electricity price increased by 14.66% to €109.56/MWh. Croatia recorded a 14.55% rise to €103.58/MWh. Bulgaria’s average price climbed by 11.08% to €101.07/MWh, while Hungary increased by 10.31% to €106.51/MWh.
Serbia’s average day-ahead price advanced by 5.59% to €96.63/MWh. Greece remained the lowest-priced interconnected European market in the region, but its average edged up to €88.98/MWh. Italy continued to record the highest average electricity price at €119.35/MWh, staying broadly stable versus April while remaining significantly above the level seen a year earlier.
Drivers behind higher wholesale prices
The report attributes the increase in prices to multiple factors beyond renewable generation levels . It states that higher wind and solar output can depress prices during periods of strong production, particularly around midday. It also says dispatchable generation remains necessary during evening demand peaks and during periods when renewable output is weaker.
In May, hydroelectric generation produced mixed results, according to the analysis. Natural gas prices stayed sufficiently elevated to continue setting marginal electricity prices across relevant hours . Several markets also maintained heavy reliance on imported electricity.
Croatia sourced 43.78% of its electricity from net imports, while Hungary nearly reached 29.97%. Imports accounted for 17.97%% of Italy’s electricity supply . These import shares are presented as part of the broader context for price formation in interconnected markets.
Flexibility requirements for renewables integration
The analysis says May’s market performance shows that renewable capacity alone is no longer the decisive factor shaping monthly electricity prices . It argues that renewable effectiveness increasingly depends on system flexibility availability, including battery storage and hydroelectric resources.
The report also points to demand response, stronger cross-border interconnections, and commercial power purchase agreements (PPAs) as elements affecting how renewables translate into market outcomes . It states that balancing mechanisms are expected to play a larger role in turning growing renewable generation into sustained reductions in wholesale electricity prices as Southeast Europe’s market evolves.
