In the latest developments within the European gas market, TTF gas futures have shown notable volatility, reaching multi-month highs before experiencing a pullback as February approached. Prices for front-month contracts briefly neared €40/MWh, a level not observed since mid-2025, before settling back into the mid-€30 range. This initial surge was primarily attributed to low underground gas storage levels, which have raised alarms about potential rapid depletion, compounded by cold weather risks and adjustments to scheduled maintenance in Norway.
During Week 05 of 2026 (January 26 to February 1), TTF gas futures for March delivery continued their upward trajectory. The front-month contract averaged €37.97/MWh throughout the week, opening at €37.40/MWh on January 26. After dipping to €37.40/MWh on January 28, it rebounded to €38.59/MWh on January 29, marking a 4.1% increase, and surged further to €39.29/MWh (+1.8%) on January 30, which was the highest settlement price recorded for that week.
As of January 26, European gas storage levels had fallen to 44% of total capacity, marking the lowest point for this time of year since 2022 when storage dipped to 40% amid efforts to replace Russian gas supplies. This current figure is significantly below the ten-year average of 58%. Projections indicate that if current trends continue, storage could plummet to 30% or lower by the end of March. To restore stocks to the previous winter’s level of 83%, approximately 60 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas will need to be injected into storage facilities, underscoring Europe’s pressing procurement requirements in the coming months.
Despite ongoing pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan providing some baseline support, the challenge remains substantial in replenishing underground storage ahead of next winter. The European Union is currently contending with a shortfall of about 130 full-volume gas shipments compared to last year, with total storage capacity recorded at 490 terawatt-hours as of January 29. Current stockpiles are at just 43% capacity, representing the lowest seasonal level since the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Moreover, gas stocks have been declining at an accelerated pace leading up to mid-January, particularly in countries such as Germany. Analysts attribute this trend to government policies that have resulted in lower storage levels compared to previous years. The situation necessitates careful monitoring as Europe navigates its energy landscape amid fluctuating supply dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties.
