Day-ahead electricity prices for Tuesday delivery fell across most interconnected Southeast European markets, reversing part of Monday’s rally. The move was linked to stronger solar availability, cooler temperatures and lower import requirements, while aggregate regional consumption increased. The session also showed strong price convergence across Hungary and central European-linked markets, alongside continued discounts in Serbia, North Macedonia and parts of the southern Balkans.
Central European cluster settles around €164–166/MWh
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload settled at €164.47/MWh, down €19.4/MWh or about 10.6% from Monday. Romania’s OPCOM cleared at €164.17/MWh, Croatia at €164.23/MWh, Germany at €163.93/MWh, Slovenia at €165.68/MWh and Austria at €166.08/MWh. Across these six markets, the average was approximately €164.76/MWh, with only €2.15/MWh separating the lowest and highest prices.
Convergence was visible in Hungary’s cross-border spreads, with HUPX trading just €0.54/MWh above Germany, €0.30/MWh above Romania and €0.24/MWh above Croatia. Slovenia carried a premium of slightly more than €1.20/MWh over Hungary. The narrow spreads indicated Tuesday’s market behaved increasingly like an integrated central European power system.
Southern Balkans trade at deeper discounts
Outside the central cluster, prices diverged further south as Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded the lowest regional baseload at €133.02/MWh. That level was up €4.8/MWh from Monday, while North Macedonia followed at €135.38/MWh, down almost €16/MWh. Albania rose €8.3/MWh to €152.60/MWh, Greece edged up €0.3/MWh to €153.72/MWh and Montenegro declined €13.6/MWh to €154.65/MWh.
Italy remained the regional premium market at around €172.64/MWh, leaving a €39.6/MWh gap versus Serbia. The structure produced a two-tier pattern: Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Austria and Germany clustered around €164–166/MWh, while Serbia and North Macedonia stayed heavily discounted.
Hourly spreads reflect solar-driven inversion
The session’s hourly pricing showed inverted peak and off-peak relationships across several markets, consistent with solar generation during daytime hours. In Hungary, the peak block averaged €153.8/MWh versus €175.1/MWh for off-peak hours; Germany showed a similar pattern at €153.8/MWh and €174.1/MWh respectively. Romania recorded peak at €153.9/MWh and off-peak at €174.4/MWh.
The inversion widened in southern markets where Greece posted a peak average of €133.1/MWh against €174.3/MWh off-peak for a spread of more than €41/MWh. Serbia averaged €115/MWh during peak hours compared with €151.1/MWh off-peak, while North Macedonia stood at €122.5/MWh and €148.3/MWh respectively; Italy recorded peak at €159.1/MWh and off-peak at €188.2/MWh.
Evening scarcity appears in specific hours rather than daily averages
The hourly curves highlighted separation between solar-heavy afternoon pricing and later evening ramps as HUPX reached a low of €131.3/MWh in hour 14 before climbing to €208.6/MWh in hour 21. Romania recorded the same maximum of €208.6/MWh in hour 21, while Greece fell as low as €66.3/MWh in hour 15 before reaching €208.6/MWh in hour 21 as well.
Italy showed the strongest evening scarcity signal with its national price peaking at €251.7/MWh in hour 21. Serbia illustrated how a low daily average can coexist with scarcity: SEEPEX dropped to just €56.9/MWh at its minimum, then surged to €224.3/MWh in hour 21, exceeding the Hungarian maximum.
Consumption rises but temperatures cool; solar output increases
Regional fundamentals were mixed rather than uniformly bearish as average regional consumption was forecast at 31.495 GW, up 708 MW from Monday, while the regional temperature indicator fell 1.2°C to 23.3°C on Tuesday delivery day . Hungarian demand fell by 259 MW to 4.48 GW, while Greece added 345 MW and Romania plus Bulgaria increased demand by about 920 MW.
Solar availability provided the stronger downward influence on prices as the regional solar forecast rose by 918 MW to around 7.895 GW. Wind availability declined by 179 MW to 1.248 GW. The price correction therefore reflected higher solar output and changing physical flows alongside stronger weekday consumption rather than weaker demand alone.
Imports fall; northbound flows support central alignment
Total imports decline to 436 MW; balances show Bulgaria surplus and Hungary deficit
Total net regional imports fell to only 436 MW, down 555 MW from the previous session . Imports from the Austria-Slovakia core declined by 462 MW to 948 MW, while exports towards Italy increased to around 513 MW from 403 MW.
Bulgaria remained a surplus system with forecast generation of about 5.37 GW versus consumption of 3.90 GW, leaving net exports around 1.47 GW. The Bulgaria-Romania base flow was approximately 1.15 GW, with about 385 MW moving towards Serbia and another 160 MW towards North Macedonia.
