Regional day-ahead split across SEE and Italy
South-east Europe’s power trading landscape opened the 18 June 2026 session with a clear regional split in day-ahead pricing. Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Italy cleared at the upper end of the European spectrum, while Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia cleared at a significant discount. The pattern reflected the role of grid constraints, interconnector limits, dispatch structure and cross-border risk in shaping price formation across neighbouring markets.
HUPX benchmark and CORE-linked pricing corridor
The Hungarian benchmark HUPX cleared at €133.60/MWh, up €9.80/MWh day on day. Hungary traded slightly below Germany at €139.92/MWh and Italy at €139.58/MWh, while Austria followed at €131.78/MWh. Romania cleared at €124.26/MWh, Slovenia at €129.30/MWh, and Croatia at €127.27/MWh, maintaining close linkage to the central European and Italian pricing complex.
Southern Balkan discounts widen versus Hungary
Southern Balkan markets moved lower compared with northern SEE benchmarks. Greece cleared at €76.83/MWh, Bulgaria at €84.09/MWh, Serbia at €79.14/MWh, Montenegro at €81.29/MWh, Albania at €79.81/MWh, and North Macedonia at €82.80/MWh. The spread between Hungary and Greece widened to €56.78/MWh, with Hungary trading more than €50/MWh above several Western Balkan markets.
Demand, temperature and import capacity value
Regional demand rose to 29,836 MW, up 887 MW day on day, as average temperatures across SEE and Hungary increased to 23.4°C. Although temperatures were not yet extreme summer peak conditions, the change tightened northern residual load and increased the value of import capacity. Demand forecasts stood at 4,538 MW for Hungary, 6,173 MW for Greece, and 8,900 MW for the Romania–Bulgaria block.
Northern SEE net exports despite higher demand
The system remained in a net export position of around 1,121 MW, reversing the previous day’s import balance . Greece exported approximately 1,630 MW, while Bulgaria exported around 1,167 MW. Serbia imported about 533 MW, Croatia imported about 1,191 MW, and Hungary imported about 377 MW. The flow pattern indicated that price convergence did not follow southern discounts because transmission and timing constraints limited arbitrage.
Generation mix and intraday scarcity timing
Total generation was 28,313 MW, down 608 MW from the previous day . Hydro held steady at 6,138 MW, coal fell to 4,728 MW, and gas increased to 4,804 MW. Nuclear rose modestly to 4,942 MW, wind increased to 1,551 MW (+830 MW), while solar dropped sharply to 5,565 MW (−1,671 MW).
The intraday profile showed solar-heavy hours with lower prices alongside an evening ramp that became the dominant pricing period. On HUPX, prices reached a peak of €389.60/MWh at hour 22, with a minimum of €18.60/MWh at hour 15. Similar volatility appeared on Slovenia at a peak of 000000000000000
The same volatility pattern was reported for Slovenia with a peak of €369.80/MWh”, Croatia with a peak of €374.20/MWh, Austria with a peak of €381.70/MWh and Romania with a peak of €386.80/MWh.
Softer southern pricing still shows scarcity ranges on SEEPEX
Southern markets followed similar intraday structure but on lower absolute levels. SEEPEX cleared at €79.14/MWh”, with a peak of €140/MWh and a minimum of €8.10/MWh . Montenegro and Albania recorded similar ranges in their respective trading outcomes.
Gas and carbon signals show limited impact on price formation for the day-ahead session
The fuel-and-carbon indicators provided limited direction for the session’s price outcomes . CEGH gas fell to €42.74/MWh”, Greek gas declined to €41.51/MWh, while EUAs were broadly flat at €79.78/t. Coal forwards showed only marginal strength during the period.
Tighter forward premium in Hungary versus Germany spreads into later weeks
The forward curve reinforced a structural premium in Hungary relative to Germany through later delivery periods . Week 26 traded at €129.50/MWh, Week 27 at €123.50/MWh, July 2026 at €119.50/MWh and Cal-26 at €111.50/MWh . The persistent HU–DE spread reflected expectations of continued import dependency during tight hours alongside exposure to SEE flow volatility and interconnector constraints.
Bidding exposure shifts for industry amid hourly volatility risk in evening peaks
The implications for industrial consumers were tied to changing exposure profiles across the region . Even where southern prices were lower on average levels, risk increasingly moved toward hourly volatility rather than baseload cost exposure, particularly during evening peaks . Procurement strategies based only on average prices were described as becoming less reliable as shaped consumption, flexibility and storage integration gained importance across SEE.
PPA bankability links to timing as solar compresses midday prices
The same intraday structure affected revenue risk for renewable developers . Solar output continued to compress midday prices while wind generation provided more balanced exposure across higher-value hours . Rising cannibalisation effects during solar-heavy periods pointed to storage pairing needs alongside PPAs and export accessibility for bankability in SEE markets.
Around 151 GW wind capacity expected in Europe by 2030
A broader investment backdrop pointed to expected growth in wind capacity across Europe between 2026 and 2030 . Total additions were put at around 151 GW of wind capacity including 117 GW onshore and 34 GW offshore, lifting total capacity toward 439 GW . For South-east Europe specifically, higher renewable supply was linked to increased hourly volatility alongside congestion pressure and balancing-market importance.
Southeast Europe project updates: Montenegro solar expansion and Romania hybrid PPA structures
Northern investment developments included Montenegro’s Kapino Polje B1 solar expansion adding 11.43 MW of new capacity . In Romania, hybrid PPA structures combining wind, solar and battery storage were described as signalling dispatch-aware financing models . These structures increasingly defined bankable projects based on timing, flexibility and contractual shaping in addition to production volumes.
Nuclear availability in Slovenia’s Krško plant supports baseload supply
Nuclear continued to provide stability within an otherwise volatile system through Slovenia’s Krško plant . The plant was described as remaining a key anchor for regional baseload supply with high availability and planned output increases into 2026 supporting its role for Slovenia and Croatia . Turkey’s growing renewable and storage financing pipeline was also cited as adding a regional reference point for scale and investment expectations even outside direct SEE price coupling coverage.
Thermal fuel security factors across Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia
Thermal fundamentals remained central to system security through fuel-security assumptions across SEE markets . Bulgaria’s proposed gas price increase was cited alongside Croatia’s extended offshore production rights and Serbia’s evolving ownership and licensing structure . These elements were linked to generation reliability expectations used in planning assumptions across the region.
