Forecast build-out of new wind capacity
Europe’s wind sector is expected to expand through the end of the decade, with new additions driven primarily by onshore growth and repowering activity. Industry forecasts indicate total new wind capacity of around 151 GW between 2026 and 2030. Of that figure, approximately 117 GW is projected to come from onshore projects, while offshore developments are expected to contribute the remaining 34 GW.
The European Union is projected to lead the expansion, with about 112 GW of new wind capacity expected across the EU by the end of the decade. Average annual installations are forecast at roughly 22 GW within the EU. Across Europe as a whole, annual installations are expected to average approximately 30 GW.
Total installed capacity target for 2030
If the projections materialize, total installed wind capacity in Europe could reach approximately 439 GW by 2030. The breakdown would include about 366 GW of onshore capacity and around 73 GW offshore. This would place wind generation as a major component of the European electricity system.
Alongside new build, the industry is preparing for decommissioning activity affecting older assets. Around 16 GW of existing wind capacity is expected to be retired between 2026 and 2030. Roughly half of that volume is likely to be repowered with newer turbines.
Decommissioning and repowering dynamics
The remaining portion of retired capacity is expected to be permanently decommissioned rather than replaced through repowering. Repowering has gained importance as newer turbines are described as significantly larger and more efficient than earlier generations. This shift affects both project replacement cycles and future capacity availability.
Turbine size trends also differ between offshore and onshore developments. New offshore turbines are now averaging around 10.7 MW per unit, compared with approximately 5.2 MW for new onshore installations. The figures reflect rapid technological progress across the sector.
