European natural gas prices moved to their highest level since late 2022 as constrained global LNG supplies met lower storage inventories ahead of the winter heating season. Dutch TTF November futures settled at €87.32/MWh, about 1% higher on the day. The contract was more than double its level at the start of the year.
Prices have increased sharply since late September, with the market facing stronger competition for LNG cargoes alongside a thinner storage cushion. That tighter balance has kept prompt pricing elevated into the winter period.
LNG shipping disruption and buyer competition
A key pressure point is disruption to LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate this route has removed around 20% of global LNG deliveries from the market. With fewer cargoes available, competition between European and Asian buyers has intensified.
The reduction in supply availability affects how quickly LNG volumes can be redirected into European markets during the run-up to winter demand. As a result, pricing conditions remain sensitive to changes in shipping flows and delivery schedules.
Lower storage levels entering winter
Europe is entering winter with significantly less gas in storage than a year earlier. EU facilities were 74.1% full on Oct. 15, compared with 83.04% at the same point in 2025.
Inventories are expected to rise only to 75-78% by Nov. 1, which is around ten percentage points below the five-year average. Under relatively normal winter conditions, northwestern Europe inventories could fall to around 20% by early April.
Winter supply coverage and policy shift from 2027
Storage withdrawals typically cover only 25-30% of European winter demand. The remaining requirement depends on continuing pipeline supplies and LNG imports during the heating season.
Norway and the United States remain key external suppliers for that balance. The market also faces a structural change from January 2027, when the EU plans to impose a complete ban on Russian LNG imports.
As colder weather begins to increase heating demand, reduced inventories and tighter LNG availability are reinforcing each other. This raises the risk that elevated European gas prices persist beyond the peak winter period and continue feeding into electricity-generation costs across Central and Southeast Europe.
