Greece’s planned offshore wind programme could reduce gas-fired electricity generation by 30% and lower power-system operating costs. The findings come from research by the Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company and consultancy Exergia. The study assessed the potential impact of offshore wind on Greece’s electricity system.
Scenarios compare offshore and land-based renewables
Researchers evaluated Greece’s 3.9 GW offshore wind target against development pathways relying more heavily on solar and onshore wind. One alternative scenario would add 6.8 GW of solar and 2.2 GW of onshore wind. A second would add 9.2 GW of solar and just 0.6 GW of onshore wind, reflecting limits on sites available for further land-based wind development.
Despite higher construction costs, offshore wind could remain economically competitive if electricity from the projects is priced at between €123 and €160/MWh. The study found that the offshore pathway could halve annual operating costs. It could also reduce renewable curtailment by as much as four times compared with the alternative development pathways.
Generation profile affects system costs
The study identifies generation profiles as a key factor in the comparison. Large additions of solar capacity can produce substantial surpluses during periods of high output, pushing wholesale prices down and increasing curtailment. Researchers estimated the resulting solar price-cannibalisation effect at €24.5/MWh.
Offshore wind could offer a more diversified generation profile and ease that price pressure. Researchers also tested the scenarios against an energy crisis comparable to the one in 2022 occurring once every five years. Offshore wind remained economically attractive at €160/MWh, as savings elsewhere in the system offset higher generation costs.
The analysis indicates that Greece could potentially develop offshore wind without additional public subsidies, provided the assumed market and system conditions are achieved.
