Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis points to Serbia as one of the key electricity trading developments in the Western Balkans. The average day-ahead price on the SEEPEX exchange increased to €96.63/MWh, up 5.59% from April and 8.50% versus May 2025. Alongside the price move, trading activity expanded during the month.
SEEPEX recorded 566.3 GWh of traded volume in May. That total was up 16.99% month on month and 13.31% year on year. The data indicates improving market liquidity while Serbia moved into a net electricity importer position.
May physical balance: imports rise amid weaker hydro output
Serbia’s physical market balance shifted in May, with net imports reaching 422.97 GWh. The change reflected higher electricity demand alongside weaker domestic hydropower production. Power consumption increased by 4.26% from April, one of the strongest monthly demand rises across Southeast Europe.
Hydropower generation fell by 31.68%, reducing operational flexibility in the system. Renewable generation rose by only 2.90%, which was insufficient to offset the decline in hydro output while demand increased.
Generation mix: coal and lignite dominate supply
In May, Serbia’s generation mix remained led by coal and lignite, accounting for 56.99% of total generation. Hydropower contributed 33.49%, while renewables provided 8.26%. Natural gas represented just 0.43% of the generation mix.
The share of coal-based generation supports baseload supply, while lower hydropower output affects system flexibility. With hydro generation reduced, Serbia relied more on cross-border supply during periods of higher demand.
Cross-border flows: imports from multiple neighbors
Cross-border electricity trade expanded across the month as Serbia imported power from Hungary, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Exports were directed only to Croatia. The range of import sources points to growing integration with neighboring markets.
The pattern also underscores the role of transmission capacity and congestion management for balancing domestic supply and demand through day-ahead trading . It aligns with the observed increase in SEEPEX volumes during May .
SEEPEX liquidity and regional market influence in May 2026
Taken together, May 2026 highlighted Serbia’s move toward a more liquid and regionally connected electricity market. Higher SEEPEX trading volumes were recorded alongside increased import dependence during a period when hydropower output was weak . Regional conditions therefore played a larger role in how domestic price formation developed during the month.
The combination of coal-based generation, weather-driven hydro variability, cross-border electricity flows, and improving exchange liquidity continued to shape Serbia’s wholesale electricity market throughout May 2026 .
