The South-East European electricity markets experienced a significant uptick in prices on Friday, driven by a notable drop in solar generation, increased thermal dispatch, and heightened cross-border imports. Day-ahead prices surged above the €120/MWh mark across most regional exchanges, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead market recorded a closing price of €140.45/MWh, remaining stable compared to the previous day while solidifying its status as one of the highest-priced hubs in Central and Eastern Europe. Romania’s OPCOM saw an increase to €144.45/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX rose to €131.75/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €130.20/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX also climbed to €122.42/MWh, whereas Greece’s HENEX remained lower at €122.10/MWh despite recovering from earlier low-price sessions.
The price rebound can be attributed to a sharp decline in solar generation across Southeast Europe and Hungary, which fell by approximately 1.5 GW day-on-day. Total photovoltaic output dropped to around 4.5 GW from nearly 6 GW in the previous session, compelling system operators and traders to increasingly depend on imports and flexible thermal generation resources.
Net regional imports surged to about 1,736 MW, an increase of nearly 800 MW from the prior day. Imports from the Central European CORE region into Hungary and Southeast Europe exceeded 1.7 GW during this period. Concurrently, gas-fired generation rose by approximately 550 MW, while wind generation expanded by around 665 MW, providing some mitigation against the weaker solar conditions.
Market conditions remain highly sensitive to renewable intermittency and evening ramping demands, particularly as reduced daytime solar production coincides with heightened evening demand profiles. This sensitivity underscores the region’s growing reliance on flexible balancing resources during shoulder-season conditions; when solar output diminishes, the market quickly shifts towards gas, imports, and hydro balancing.
The spread between Hungary and Germany widened significantly to about €26.6/MWh from just above €4/MWh the previous day, prompting increased commercial flows from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and the Balkans. Romania exhibited the strongest intraday volatility profile within the region, with OPCOM evening hourly prices exceeding €300/MWh during peak delivery periods due to tightening balancing conditions and an increasing reliance on flexible dispatch capacity.
Despite stronger day-ahead pricing, renewable energy penetration across Southeast Europe remains high. Hydro generation constitutes roughly 23% of the regional power mix, while solar and nuclear each account for around 16%, coal contributes approximately 19%, and gas makes up about 14%.
Gas markets have remained relatively stable, with Austrian CEGH front-month contracts trading near €45.9/MWh and EU carbon allowances holding close to €75/t. Coal forwards have also remained firm above $110/t, supporting thermal dispatch economics across coal-dependent Balkan systems.
In terms of infrastructure development, Bulgaria has made strides this week by commissioning two significant flexibility-related projects: Rezolv Energy’s 225 MW St. George solar plant paired with a 90 MW / 240 MWh battery storage system, alongside Enery’s standalone 150 MW / 601.8 MWh battery installation near Nova Zagora—one of the largest operational storage facilities in Central and Eastern Europe.
These developments come as European market operators brace for increasingly volatile pricing conditions linked to renewable oversupply and balancing challenges. Under revised SDAC market rules set to take effect on May 28th, the harmonized minimum clearing price for European day-ahead markets will decrease from -€500/MWh to -€600/MWh following multiple negative pricing events observed across various bidding zones in late April and early May.
